Atlanta's problem is that one good piece isn't enough to win. Bijan Robinson put up 147 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown against Cincinnati in Madrid, and the Falcons still lost 34-17 because nobody could cover. Joe Burrow went 24-of-29 for 271 yards and 4 total touchdowns, and Ja'Marr Chase caught 10 balls for 155 yards against a secondary that never matched up. That came a week after a 16-0 shutout loss in Tampa. The defense can't get stops, and some weeks the offense can't score.
The Chiefs' last 5 games are uneven. They beat the Chargers 22-6, managed just 3 points in Seattle, then lost a 28-24 shootout in Denver before the Jets blowout. Atlanta's only win in that stretch was a 29-20 home win over the 49ers, its only game over 23 points in that run. Michael Penix Jr. went 20-of-31 for 162 yards with a touchdown and a pick against Cincinnati. His 50 rushing yards were the more interesting number. The passing game is still mostly short throws to Drake London, who caught all 5 of his targets for 68 yards.
Atlanta's injury list matters most up front on defense. Samson Ebukam is on injured reserve, Drake Jackson was inactive in Madrid, and Anterio Thompson says he's done with football. That leaves fewer pass rushers to hit a quarterback who may not be fully healthy. Brian Robinson Jr. going on IR also leaves the backfield behind Bijan thin, with Khalil Herbert just promoted from the practice squad. The game is indoors at 1:00 PM ET, so weather won't be a factor. It comes down to Mahomes' elbow, a Chiefs offensive line with injury questions, and whether Atlanta's defense can cover anybody.
