TLDR: Somebody has to win this one. The 1-7 Dolphins head to Indianapolis to face a 2-7 Colts team that has lost 5 straight, and the most interesting thing about Sunday is finding out which of these 2 seasons has hit bottom.
Two of the AFC's worst teams meet in a dome: 1-7 Miami against a 2-7 Indianapolis team on a 5-game losing streak. Malik Willis is playing through a tight groin behind a struggling line, and Daniel Jones is coming off a late interception that sealed a blown lead against Dallas. The Colts are slight home favorites, but their injury list at tackle, linebacker and safety means the result probably depends on who is cleared to play by Sunday.
+Shrader perfect on kicks vs Dallas: 3 FGs, 2 PATs
Start at quarterback, because both teams' problems run through it. Malik Willis went 13-of-25 for 128 yards and an interception in Miami's 19-9 home loss to Detroit. Willis took only 2 sacks while under constant pressure, but by the end he looked nothing like the athlete the Dolphins brought in. Afterward he said his groin was "a little tight today." A quarterback who wins with his legs, playing on a sore groin behind a line that couldn't protect him, is the first thing to watch this week. Daniel Jones is in a stranger spot on the other side. The Colts told him before the deadline that he wasn't being traded, and then he finished 20-of-34 for 180 yards with a touchdown and the interception that ended the Dallas game.
That Dallas loss is the one Indianapolis will be thinking about. The Colts went ahead 23-20 with under 2 minutes left, gave up a 1-yard Javonte Williams touchdown, and then Jones threw the game away. Jonathan Taylor ran 13 times for 46 yards and lost a fumble. They also lost bodies during that game: right tackle Jalen Travis (knee) and linebacker Jaylon Carlies (neck) were both ruled out in-game, and that came after safety A.J. Haulcy (ankle) had already been ruled out before kickoff. Alec Pierce is on IR with a heel injury, and Steichen won't give a timetable. Even so, the market has the home team as a modest favorite, which says more about Miami than about Indianapolis.
Miami's skill-position group is thin and mostly young. Caleb Douglas was the one bright spot against Detroit, catching 6 of 8 targets for 70 yards. Behind him, Malik Washington and Greg Dulcich combined for 4 catches. The run game belonged to Ollie Gordon II, with 16 carries for 55 yards, because Jaylen Wright (quad) hasn't been active and Justin Joly was inactive again at tight end. The defense has been holding up its end. Jordyn Brooks had 11 tackles in the New England loss, and rookie Jacob Rodriguez forced a fumble in that game.
The scores tell you what kind of game this is likely to be. Miami has gone 1-4 in its last 5 and topped 24 points just once, in the 28-25 win over the Jets. The Colts have scored 10 and 7 in 2 of their last 5, including a 42-7 loss in Jacksonville they would like to forget. Neither offense has been able to stay on schedule. A dome at Lucas Oil Stadium takes the weather out of it, so whatever happens at 1:00 PM ET comes down to which quarterback can avoid giving the game away.
The week's injury reports matter more than usual here. Willis's groin is the biggest question for Miami, and his mobility is the only thing keeping a leaky protection unit afloat. For Indianapolis, the questions are whether Travis can go at tackle and whether Carlies and Haulcy return to a back seven that just gave up the winning drive. Six days is enough time for either list to go in either direction, and the team that gets healthier probably goes home with the win.
