TLDR: Atlanta just handed San Francisco its first loss of the season, and Tampa Bay just hung 43 on Carolina. Both of them get a week to feel good about it before an NFC South game on Sunday, November 1 that will set the tone for the rest of the year in the division.
Atlanta comes to Tampa after a turnover-fueled upset of the previously unbeaten 49ers, while Tampa Bay got Baker Mayfield back from a thumb injury and ran for 258 yards in a rout of Carolina. The game likely comes down to whether Mayfield's thumb lets the Bucs pass, whether the Bucs can finally win at home after 3 straight home losses in this stretch, and which version of Atlanta's up-and-down defense shows up. The board has it close to a coin flip, with Tampa slightly favored at home.
Start with the quarterbacks, because that's where this game gets interesting. Michael Penix Jr. was efficient in the first half against the 49ers, going 14-of-18 for 94 yards and a touchdown, and Atlanta's offense spread it around after that: Kyle Pitts caught multiple touchdowns and Drake London scored in the 4th quarter after getting cleared from a head evaluation. On the other side, Baker Mayfield came back from a dislocated right thumb that cost him 3 games and barely had to throw. He went 11 passes, 64 yards, wearing a protective glove. That worked against a Carolina team that turned it over 4 times. Whether Mayfield's thumb lets him actually throw the ball 30 times is the biggest open question of the week.
Tampa didn't need him to throw against Carolina because the run game took over. The Bucs ran for 258 yards on 49 carries, Bucky Irving went for 106 and 2 touchdowns, and 3 different backs topped 50 yards. They did it without right tackle Luke Goedeke, and with Emeka Egbuka inactive again, which left Tez Johnson, Ted Hurst III and the newly activated David Sills V to cover the receiver snaps. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. was inactive too. Atlanta's injury list has its own problems: Avieon Terrell and Billy Bowman Jr. sat out against San Francisco, Brian Robinson Jr. was inactive at running back, and A.J. Terrell Jr. only just came off injured reserve. The board has this about as close to even as an NFL game gets, with Tampa a slight home favorite.
The Falcons win has more behind it than the box score shows. Atlanta's defense picked off Brock Purdy twice and recovered 2 fumbles, one from George Kittle, and the 49ers gave a scoring drive a big push with 4 penalties for first downs. Kendal Daniels sealed it with a third-down interception and also recovered a fumble late. That's a defense that took the game away from an unbeaten team. It also gave up 30 to Baltimore and 31 to Chicago in back-to-back home losses just before that, so it's fair to ask which version shows up in Tampa.
The strangest part of Tampa's season is where they've won. Their 2 wins in the last 5 came at Dallas and at Carolina. All 3 losses in that stretch came at Raymond James: Minnesota, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh in overtime, and none of them by more than a touchdown. A 2-5 team that keeps losing close games at home has to fix that in front of its own fans sooner or later, and a division opponent coming off an emotional win is as good a chance as any.
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET. A forecast this far out doesn't mean much, but the early one calls for 85 degrees with thunderstorms around Tampa and some wind. If that holds up, it favors whichever team can run it, and right now that's the Bucs. Atlanta wants Penix throwing to London and Pitts against a Tampa secondary missing Winfield. Tampa wants to run Irving into a defense that just spent 3 hours chasing Christian McCaffrey's team. At 3-4 and 2-5, both teams have a lot riding on this one.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers: Polymarket Odds & Prediction (Nov. 1) — Falcons Ride an Upset Into Tampa Against a Bucs Team That Can't Win at Home
