Pittsburgh just replaced a 19-year institution in Mike Tomlin, and Atlanta handed the keys to Kevin Stefanski — so Sunday's trip to Pittsburgh doubles as an early referendum on both rebuilds.
Bush’s PicksPicks madeJul 7, 1:02 PM CT
+139ATLPIT-157
+109ATL +2.5PIT -2.5-123
-114Over 41.5Under 41.5-102
Best BetSteelers -157
Pittsburgh's price reflects Rodgers' experience and a receiver room that suddenly has Metcalf and Pittman in it, while Atlanta's quarterback picture is still an open competition coming out of camp. That uncertainty is exactly why the Falcons carry plus value on the moneyline even in a game they could easily win. We took the Steelers here at -157.
Falcons
+Won 4 straight to close out the 2025 season
+Locked up Kyle Pitts on a $54M extension
+London and Pitts give Atlanta real skill talent
−Unresolved QB competition between Penix and Tagovailoa
−Finished 8-9, still under .500 last season
−First year adjusting to Stefanski's new system
Steelers
+Went 10-7 and made the playoffs last season
+Added Metcalf and Pittman to the receiver room
+Extended Herbig and Washington, kept core pieces
−First season under new coach Mike McCarthy after Tomlin
−Right tackle spot still an open competition
−Closed 2025 losing 2 of the last 3, including a blowout
Aaron Rodgers heads into his farewell season as the unquestioned starter in Pittsburgh, with new head coach Mike McCarthy — the Pittsburgh native who took over after Tomlin's exit — counting on him to make the DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman additions pay off early. Atlanta's answer at the position is murkier: Michael Penix Jr. is working back from a November ACL surgery and reportedly hitting every rehab checkpoint, but Tua Tagovailoa has been running with the starters for new coach Kevin Stefanski this offseason, and it's fair to wonder which quarterback trots out at 1:00 PM ET.
Whoever's under center for Atlanta will have real weapons — Kyle Pitts just signed a three-year, $54 million extension and Drake London remains the top read, though London sat out offseason work as a precaution. Pittsburgh's offensive line is still sorting through its own questions, with Broderick Jones working back from a neck issue and the right tackle spot up for grabs, which matters plenty for a 42-year-old quarterback. None of that has stopped the market from installing the Steelers as clear favorites.
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ATL Falcons
PIT Steelers
That price is really a bet on continuity. Pittsburgh went 10-7 and made the playoffs under Tomlin last year, and while the coach is new, the extended core — Nick Herbig, Darnell Washington, Jaylen Warren — isn't. Atlanta closed its own season on a four-game heater, knocking off the Rams and Saints down the stretch, proof the roster can play winning football once it settles into whatever Stefanski installs.
Atlanta Falcons
Pittsburgh Steelers
Recent form.
Neither injury report changes the outlook much — Atlanta's list is mostly names checking in healthy out of minicamp, and Pittsburgh's is heavier on new contracts than actual absences. The bigger variable is scheme installation: two brand-new coaching staffs running their systems live for the first time, which tends to produce uglier football before it produces clean football.
Atlanta Falcons
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Pittsburgh Steelers
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Rodgers has one more run at this, McCarthy is out to prove Pittsburgh didn't need Tomlin to keep winning, and Atlanta needs to show last year's finish wasn't a mirage. That's plenty to watch before the scoreboard says a word.
