TLDR: Detroit has scored 26 or more in all 4 of its games and is still only 2-2, because the defense keeps giving it right back. Arizona has lost 3 straight since Mike LaFleur's debut win, and the latest one ended with a 98-yard pick-six on the final play.
Detroit's offense has scored at least 26 in every game, but a secondary missing Ya-Sin, Harper and Branch has kept the Lions at 2-2 after Carolina's receivers ran wild. Arizona is 1-3 and has lost 3 straight, with Brissett coming off a 3-interception game and both his left tackle and a starting guard banged up. The game will likely come down to whether the Cardinals can protect Brissett long enough to test Detroit's depleted defensive backs.
+Michael Wilson drew 13 targets against the Giants
+Last 2 losses were 1-score games late
+Plays at home in the dome after 2 road trips
−Brissett threw 3 interceptions, including the final-play pick-six
−Has allowed 36 points in each of the last 2 games
−LT Paris Johnson Jr. (biceps) and G Isaiah Adams (ankle) both hurt
Start with the quarterbacks, because they could hardly be in different places. Jared Goff threw it 52 times for 412 yards in the 32-26 loss at Carolina, and the offense was not the problem. Jacoby Brissett threw a career-high 3 interceptions against the Giants. The last one came on fourth-and-goal with Arizona down 6, and Deonte Banks took it 98 yards the other way as time expired. LaFleur has already shut down any talk of benching Brissett, so the Cardinals are sticking with him, and with Carson Beck still sitting as the emergency third quarterback.
The Lions' problem is the back end. Carolina put up nearly 450 yards and scored on 6 straight drives, while Tetairoa McMillan caught 14 balls for 192 yards and 2 touchdowns. Rock Ya-Sin left that game with a hamstring injury, Thomas Harper is on IR, and Brian Branch is still working back from his Achilles, though Dan Campbell says he's close. Arizona's issues are up front on offense: left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. is dealing with a biceps injury and guard Isaiah Adams hurt his ankle against New York. The board has Detroit as a road favorite by more than a field goal, with one of the higher totals of the week.
So it's a strength-on-weakness game in both directions. Michael Wilson saw 13 targets against the Giants and caught 7 for 95 yards. If Brissett can get him going against a secondary that McMillan just tore apart, Arizona can keep this a shootout. The flip side is that Brissett has to do it behind a line that might be missing its left tackle, against a Lions team that has 31 points in 3 of its 4 games. Defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard is under real pressure in Detroit after the Carolina game, and an indoor afternoon at State Farm Stadium is no place for a defense to find itself.
The Arizona skid isn't 3 blowouts. Seattle did roll them 31-7 at home. But the 49ers loss was a 6-point game, and the Giants game was 1 score until Banks' return made it 12. The Cardinals have allowed 36 points in each of their last 2, and that is what should worry them against Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Gibbs had 3 total touchdowns against the Jets. Trey McBride's 7 catches for 31 yards against New York shows a passing game that is moving the chains in short gains rather than getting chunks downfield.
Kickoff is 1:25 PM MT on Sunday, October 11. Watch Detroit's injury report for Branch and Ya-Sin, and Arizona's for Johnson. Those answers will say whether this is Goff against a defense that can't stop anyone, or 2 bad secondaries trading touchdowns under the roof all afternoon.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals — Lions Bring a Leaky Defense to the Desert Against Reeling Cardinals | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush
