New England's results have bounced all over the place. They lost a 13-10 grinder in Seattle, held Pittsburgh to 3 points, got run off the field 35-6 in Jacksonville, then won in Buffalo. The Raiders have been steadier. They beat Miami, the Chargers and the Saints by a combined 34 points before Kansas City came back on them at home.
The Chiefs loss also exposed a run defense problem for the Raiders. Kenneth Walker ran 22 times for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns, including the go-ahead score with 3:21 left, after Matt Gay's 48-yard field goal had put Las Vegas up 19-17. Kubiak had told CBS at halftime that his team would win, and the 4th quarter made that look bad. New England's backfield is a committee. Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson split 27 carries in Buffalo, and Stevenson scored a rushing touchdown and caught a 2-point conversion. Whether that committee can lean on the Raiders the way Walker did is probably the biggest question in this game.
The Patriots have problems of their own at cornerback. Christian Gonzalez was inactive against Buffalo and Charles Woods left that game with a shoulder injury. A.J. Brown is still on IR at receiver, so Romeo Doubs has carried the load. He caught 2 touchdowns against the Bills. Cousins threw 52 times last week with Bowers healthy enough to score, so New England's secondary looks like the matchup the Raiders' offense will go after. The early forecast for Foxborough is 58 degrees, cloudy and light wind, but a week out that can still change.
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET. The Raiders have to show the Chiefs collapse was a one-off, and they have to do it with a patched interior line. The Patriots have to show Buffalo was a turning point and not another swing in a season full of them. Neither team's record settles it. The line of scrimmage probably will.