This was supposed to be the Avalanche's series. Instead they're 0-2, got outscored 7-3 at home, and the best defenseman on the planet is in street clothes with an upper-body injury. Game 3 in Vegas isn't quite must-win, but lose it and you're staring down a sweep.
Cale Makar is listed day-to-day and has now missed both games of the Western Conference Final with the upper-body issue that flared up in the Wild series. Jared Bednar says he's been on the ice testing it. Until he's actually in the lineup, the Avs are running their power play and their breakout through replacements, and you saw the trickle-down in Games 1 and 2.
- Day-To-DayCale Makar D — day-to-day
The other problem: Nathan MacKinnon has been kept off the scoresheet two straight. That doesn't happen often, and it hasn't happened on the road much this spring — he'd scored in eight of nine playoff road games coming in. Vegas's checking line and Adin Hill have been the story so far, and Pavel Dorofeyev has quietly scored in four of his last five.
The market is treating this like Vegas is the real team now. The Golden Knights are -140 on the moneyline at Pinnacle even as the home team that just won twice on the road, and the puck-line price tells you the books expect a tight, low-event game. Total sits at 6 with the under juiced slightly.
Path to a Colorado win is pretty obvious: get Makar back or get something close to a vintage MacKinnon road game, and steal one at T-Mobile before this thing gets away. Path to a Vegas win is just keep doing what's worked — forecheck, frustrate, let Hill do his thing. Puck drops at 7:05 PM CT.