If it isn't Ullmark, it's probably Samuel Ersson, and that isn't a disaster. Ersson went 3-1-1 with a .922 in his 4 starts while Ullmark was out, and Ottawa went 4-4-0 overall in that stretch. Jonas Johansson, who posted a .848, has been sent to Belleville, so the Senators' fallback is the better of their 2 backups.
Colorado's form has been streaky. The 7-2 loss in Columbus was the low point, followed by a 3-2 loss to Nashville at home. Since then the Avalanche have scored 4 and 6. Mackenzie Blackwood made 27 saves to shut out Detroit, and the offense went for 6 in Toronto. Ottawa has been more steady. Wins over Buffalo and Utah came in close, controlled games, and the Washington loss looked like those wins until the 3rd period.
Both blue lines are thinner than usual. Colorado put Josh Manson on long-term IR with an ankle injury and called up Alex Gagne from the AHL, so a depth defenseman is playing minutes Manson used to cover. Ottawa's injuries are up front. William Eklund is out 10-12 weeks after ankle-tendon surgery, Warren Foegele has a 3-4 week knee injury, and Andre Burakovsky is on IR. That's 3 left wings gone from a team that needs its depth lines to keep games low-scoring.
So the matchup is Colorado's top-end skill, with Makar back, against Ottawa's patient structure and whoever is in goal. If the Senators keep it tight and get a save percentage around Ersson's, this is a coin flip between 2 identical records. If Colorado's top players control the game the way they did in the 3rd period in Toronto, Ottawa's thinned left side probably can't keep up.
