If you wanted a tidy first round, you picked the wrong series. Montreal and Tampa Bay have spent the last two weeks trading haymakers, with each of the first three games and Game 6 going to overtime. Now it all funnels into one night at Amalie Arena.
The Lightning are only here because Gage Goncalves buried one 9:03 into OT in a 1-0 Game 6 thriller to keep the season alive. That's the kind of game that either steals a series or just delays the inevitable — Tampa needs to prove it's the former on home ice.
Montreal had the chance to close it out at the Bell Centre and couldn't get it done, which is the part that should sting. They've alternated wins and losses over their last five and now have to win the deciding game in a building where Tampa has been a different team all postseason. The Habs blanked in the second period of a previous game in this series, so the bigger concern isn't talent — it's stretches where the offense disappears entirely.
The market has the Lightning as a comfortable home favorite, which tracks with the home-ice trend in this series and Tampa's playoff pedigree. The puck-line juice on the home side is steep enough that the moneyline is the cleaner play if you believe in the Bolts; the EV on both sides is negative, so this is a game to watch, not necessarily one to fire on.
- OutPontus Holmberg RW — Holmberg sustained a fractured clavicle against Buffalo on April 6, per Evan Closky of 10 Tampa Bay News on Tuesday.
Tampa is dealing with the absence of Pontus Holmberg for the series and the Victor Hedman situation hanging in the background, which makes the depth on the back end thinner than they'd want for a Game 7. Montreal, for once in this series, gets to be the healthier team walking in.
Game 7s tend to be a coin flip dressed up as destiny. Tampa has the building, the goalie pedigree, and the experience. Montreal has the younger legs and a chance to put a stake in the era of Lightning playoff hockey. Drop the puck.