Who is favored in Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs?

Toronto Maple Leafs are favored on the moneyline.

Who is predicted to win Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs?

Our pick is Montreal Canadiens. Demidov is listed out, but the reporting has a bruised foot that isn't expected to cost him the opener. Once he's confirmed in the lineup, Montreal should get shorter than an almost-even price.

Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs

Tue Sep 29·7:00 PM ET·Toronto, ON

By JR·3 min read

MTL

TOR

Tuesday7:00 PM ET

TLDR: The NHL's oldest rivalry kicks off the 2026-27 season on Tuesday, September 29 at Scotiabank Arena. Toronto shows up with a new coach, a new GM, a 38-year-old goalie and the No. 1 overall pick. Montreal shows up wanting to know how healthy its young core is.

TUE SEP 29, 7:00 PM

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Canadiens

LLLLW

Maple Leafs

LLLLL

Montreal visits Toronto for opening night of the 2026-27 season. The Leafs have been rebuilt around a new front office, first-year coach Jim Hiller, Gavin McKenna and 38-year-old goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, and they had under 2 weeks of camp to put it together. Montreal's core is more settled, and the injury report makes things look worse than they are. It likely comes down to whether Bobrovsky looks like his Cup-run self or last season's version, and how quickly Toronto's new lines find each other.

Canadiens

Demidov expected to play despite the Out tag
Settled core against a Leafs roster rebuilt this summer
Won both split-squad games against Toronto this preseason
Guhle out several weeks after adductor surgery
Hutson and Demidov both managed through the preseason finale

Maple Leafs

McKenna's regular-season debut at home
New depth additions: Paul, Roslovic, Blueger, Sissons
Won both preseason games against Ottawa
Bobrovsky had a .877 save percentage last season
Under 2 weeks of camp for a heavily rebuilt roster
Tanev, 36, returning from core-muscle surgery

This is Toronto's season opener, and the Leafs barely look like last year's team. John Chayka took over as GM in May, Jim Hiller is behind the bench for his first season, and Mats Sundin is back as a special advisor. On the ice, the new faces run from Gavin McKenna at the top of the lineup down to depth pieces like Nick Paul, Jack Roslovic, Teddy Blueger, Colton Sissons and Brandon Duhaime. Even NHL.com's own preview says building chemistry is the biggest problem, with a training camp that ran under 2 weeks.

Montreal's questions are about health. Kaiden Guhle is still recovering from summer adductor surgery, and the club gave him a 4-5 week timeline back on September 16, so the blue line is down a regular to open the season. Ivan Demidov is listed out, but that's a bruised foot from blocking a shot in a preseason game against Ottawa. Reporting has him day-to-day and not expected to miss the start of the season. Lane Hutson also sat out the final preseason game, and TSN framed both scratches as precautionary. So the injury report looks worse than the reporting does, and a board that sits almost dead even says nobody has a firm read yet.

The whole Toronto season rests on Sergei Bobrovsky. He signed a 3-year deal in free agency and comes off a year in Florida with a .877 save percentage and a 3.07 goals-against average in 52 games. The Leafs are betting he gets back to the 2025 Cup-run version, when he posted a 2.20 GAA and a .914. That's a lot to ask of a 38-year-old playing behind a defense that's also new, with Darren Raddysh and Emil Andrae arriving and Chris Tanev, 36, back from core-muscle surgery in March.

Preseason games don't count, but these teams already met twice in a split-squad pair on September 19, and Montreal won both. Phillip Danault scored twice in a 4-1 win at Scotiabank Arena, and Cole Caufield ended the other one with 38 seconds left in overtime at the Bell Centre, 4-3. Toronto finished its exhibition slate by winning both games against Ottawa. Take that with a grain of salt. Split-squad lineups are half camp bodies, and the Leafs kept their stars home for the Toronto game.

The form card is last spring's. Montreal's final 5 competitive games were all against Carolina, and they took 1 of them, so there's no carryover to speak of. The better stories are the ones already at camp. Kirby Dach is finally healthy and turning heads, according to TSN. Easton Cowan, who had 29 points in 66 games last season, has looked sharper in Toronto. And McKenna gets his first regular-season game in the league's loudest rivalry at 7:00 PM ET.

Toronto has the newer roster and the bigger question marks. Montreal has the more settled core and a young winger whose status is a lot less dire than the injury report makes it look. Opening night in this rivalry doesn't need extra hype, and this one comes with a debut, a goalie comeback and a new coach on the Toronto side.

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