Game 1. The Sabres ended a 14-year playoff drought by knocking off Boston in 6 and are chasing their first conference final appearance since 2007. The Canadiens are coming off a Game 7 over Tampa where rookie Jakub Dobes stopped 28 of 29 in the decider. Two teams that haven't been here in a long time, opening at KeyBank Center.
The matchup-within-the-matchup is the top line on each side. Buffalo's Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch and Peyton Krebs absolutely cooked Boston at 5-on-5 with a 56.6% expected-goals share. Montreal's Suzuki–Caufield–Slafkovsky line, on the other hand, was underwater against Tampa at 43.9% xG and a minus-4 goal differential. If that script flips, the series flips with it.
The other lurking issue for the home side is the power play. Buffalo has scored one power-play goal in the last 35 days, which is the kind of stat that quietly decides a tight playoff series. Against a Canadiens team that just beat a battle-tested Lightning core, the Sabres can't afford 2 minutes of nothing every time they draw a whistle.
- Day-To-DayRasmus Dahlin D — day-to-day
- OutSam Carrick C — out
- OutNoah Ostlund C — Ostlund (lower body) isn't expected to be available to play in the second round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs, according to Rachel Lenzi of The Buffalo News on Sunday.
Buffalo will be without Noah Ostlund (lower body) for this round, per Rachel Lenzi of the Buffalo News. Not a top-line loss, but a center who eats minutes in a 7-game series is never nothing. The regular-season meetings between these two were a true coin flip — Buffalo went 2-2 head-to-head and the teams combined for an even 13-13 over the 4 games.
The market has Buffalo as a -126 favorite and the total sitting at 5.5, which tracks for a series where neither goalie has fully proven themselves yet and both top lines can detonate on any given shift. DK money is leaning Sabres on the moneyline (79% handle) but the public is pretty split on the puck line. The EVs aren't pretty on either side — this is a popcorn game, not a value play.
Pick a hero. If Dobes carries his Game 7 form into Buffalo, Montreal can absolutely steal one and put the pressure right back on a fan base that has waited two decades for this. If Thompson and Tuch keep humming and the Sabres finally get a power-play goal, this thing tilts fast. Drop the puck.