Game 1. The Sabres ended a 14-year playoff drought by knocking off Boston in 6 and are chasing their first conference final appearance since 2007. The Canadiens are coming off a Game 7 over Tampa where rookie Jakub Dobes stopped 28 of 29 in the decider. Two teams that haven't been here in a long time, opening at KeyBank Center.
The matchup-within-the-matchup is the top line on each side. Buffalo's Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch and Peyton Krebs absolutely cooked Boston at 5-on-5 with a 56.6% expected-goals share. Montreal's Suzuki–Caufield–Slafkovsky line, on the other hand, was underwater against Tampa at 43.9% xG and a minus-4 goal differential. If that script flips, the series flips with it.
The other lurking issue for the home side is the power play. Buffalo has scored one power-play goal in the last 35 days, which is the kind of stat that quietly decides a tight playoff series. Against a Canadiens team that just beat a battle-tested Lightning core, the Sabres can't afford 2 minutes of nothing every time they draw a whistle.
- Day-To-DayRasmus Dahlin (D)
- OutSam Carrick (C)
- OutNoah Ostlund (C) — Ostlund (lower body) isn't expected to be available to play in the second round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs, according to Rachel Lenzi of The Buffalo News on Sunday.05/03
Buffalo will be without Noah Ostlund (lower body) for this round, per Rachel Lenzi of the Buffalo News. Not a top-line loss, but a center who eats minutes in a 7-game series is never nothing. The regular-season meetings between these two were a true coin flip — Buffalo went 2-2 head-to-head and the teams combined for an even 13-13 over the 4 games.
The market has Buffalo as a -126 favorite and the total sitting at 5.5, which tracks for a series where neither goalie has fully proven themselves yet and both top lines can detonate on any given shift. DK money is leaning Sabres on the moneyline (79% handle) but the public is pretty split on the puck line. The EVs aren't pretty on either side — this is a popcorn game, not a value play.
Pick a hero. If Dobes carries his Game 7 form into Buffalo, Montreal can absolutely steal one and put the pressure right back on a fan base that has waited two decades for this. If Thompson and Tuch keep humming and the Sabres finally get a power-play goal, this thing tilts fast. Drop the puck.