After Buffalo flipped this series on its head with a 3-2 Game 4 win at Bell Centre, the second round is officially a 3-game sprint. Zach Benson's third-period power-play goal was the dagger, and the Sabres get to play Games 5 and 7 (if needed) on home ice. Montreal had every chance to take a stranglehold and let it slip.
The split through 4 has been wild — Game 1 Buffalo by 2, Game 2 Montreal by 4, Game 3 Montreal by 4, Game 4 Buffalo by 1. Nobody has won a tight one except the Sabres in Game 4, and that includes a Tage Thompson goal that hit the glass and bounced in — the kind of break Montreal had been getting all series until that point. Suzuki said afterward they controlled the second period and just couldn't find the next goal. That's the worry for the Habs: they're not generating cleanly when the game tightens up.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is the bigger reason Buffalo is still alive. He stopped 28 of 30 in Game 4 and posted 1.62 goals saved above expected — easily his best outing of the round. If UPL is going to be that guy in the crease, the Sabres' top-heavy attack of Thompson, Dahlin and Benson doesn't need to score 5 a night to win this series. They just need 3.
- Injured ReservePatrik Laine RW — Laine (abdomen) is practicing Saturday in a non-contact jersey, Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports reports.
- Injured ReserveJiri Kulich C — Kulich (ear) has been improving but will likely miss the rest of the regular season, Paul Hamilton of WGR Sports Radio 550 reports Friday.
- Injured ReserveJustin Danforth RW — Danforth (lower body) is trending toward a post-Olympic return to action, Bill Hoppe of the Olean Times Herald reports Monday.
- OutNoah Ostlund C — Ostlund (lower body) isn't expected to be available to play in the second round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs, according to Rachel Lenzi of The Buffalo News on Sunday.
Buffalo is still missing real pieces down the middle with Ostlund and Kulich out, which makes it that much more impressive they've punched back. Montreal isn't getting Patrik Laine back any time soon either, so neither side is suddenly getting cavalry. This is the group that decides it.
Pinnacle has the Sabres at -119 with the total parked at 6, which feels about right for a series where the home team has won 3 of 4. Montreal at +106 isn't a steal but it isn't a trap either — the Habs have been the better 5-on-5 team for stretches, and one bounce flips this game. If you wanted a lean: the team that scores first in Game 5 probably wins it.