For the Islanders, the storyline is Matthew Schaefer. The reigning rookie of the year is now an alternate captain, the youngest player in franchise history to wear a letter, and he's on the top pair with Adam Pelech. Across the ice is Gavin McKenna, the 2026 first-overall pick, who had 51 points in 35 college games and didn't register a point in his NHL debut. That's back-to-back No. 1 picks on the same sheet in Game 1, which is a pretty good way to open a season.
The Islanders' lineup has a couple of welcome returns and one obvious hole. Kyle Palmieri is back on the top line with Bo Horvat and Simon Holmström after tearing his ACL last November, and Matias Maccelli makes his Islanders debut next to Cal Ritchie and Brayden Schenn. Mathew Barzal isn't in the projected lines after missing camp with an aggravated injury. He traveled with the team but hasn't been ruled out, so the depth charts carry some uncertainty either way.
Toronto has the bigger names. John Chayka added Kirill Marchenko from Columbus and Darren Raddysh, who had 70 points on the blue line last season, and Auston Matthews is back after being limited to 60 games last year. William Nylander scored both Leafs goals against Montreal, so the new pieces haven't produced yet. On paper Toronto has more skill. Tonight they have less rest and the weaker goalie.
The simple version: the rested team with the better goalie is priced like the underdog. If Toronto's stars wake up early at home, this can get away from the Islanders fast. If it stays close into the 3rd period, the team that played Tuesday is the one that should fade.