One game stands between now and this one: Winnipeg hosts the Florida Panthers on Tuesday, then flies south. That result settles whether the Jets show up in Tampa still chasing their first win since the trade, and it shows who the new staff trusts in goal. It also hands Winnipeg a travel spot against a Tampa team with nothing on its schedule until Thursday.
Tampa's season has gone 2 ways. The Lightning won 3 in a row, including a home OT win over Seattle that Victor Hedman finished himself and a 6-2 win at Vegas, then dropped both ends of a western trip, 6-3 in Colorado and 5-4 in Utah. Hedman got hurt during that trip. He took 1 shift in the 2nd period against the Avalanche, didn't return, and sat out Utah with a lower-body injury while Tampa dressed only 6 defensemen. He is day-to-day, and one injury tracker lists the 29th as his estimated return. That's an estimate, not a confirmation.
Tampa is also thin up front. Zemgus Girgensons is day-to-day and Yanni Gourde (hip) is on the injured non-roster list, so the bottom-6 has been patched together. Even so, the Lightning at 7-3-1 have been the steadier team, and a Jets defense without Morrissey now has to handle a Tampa attack that put up 6 at Vegas and 4 even in its Utah loss.
Here's what decides it. If Hedman plays, Tampa's back end gets its anchor back against a Jets offense that has needed miracles to score 3. If Winnipeg's new goalie group steals a game, the one-goal habit could finally break in the Jets' favor. Either way, the Jets have to play Florida first, and the Lightning spend the week resting at home.