Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders

Sat Oct 107:30 PM ETESPN+Elmont, NY
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Tampa Bay has spent the last week winning at home without much fuss. On Saturday, October 10, the Lightning go back on the road for the first time since getting blown out at Madison Square Garden, and the Islanders have yet to lose at UBS Arena.

SAT 10/10, 7:30 PMESPN+

Tampa Bay (3-1-0) comes in having won 3 straight at home on structure and early leads, and now plays its first road game since a 5-1 loss to the Rangers. The Islanders (2-2-0) are 2-0 at UBS Arena, including a 6-0 home opener over New Jersey, and have Varlamov back alongside Sorokin. Lilleberg's status and which Islanders goalie starts are the two unknowns that will shape this one.

Tampa Bay Lightning
  • Won 3 straight, allowing 4 goals total
  • Carlson scored twice, including a power-play goal, against Minnesota
  • Strong at protecting leads, kept Minnesota scoreless in the 3rd
  • Only road game so far was a 5-1 loss
  • Thin at center with Gourde and James out
  • Lilleberg's return from his roughly 1-week absence is unclear
New York Islanders
  • 2-0 at UBS Arena, including a 6-0 shutout
  • Varlamov back, giving them 2 starting-caliber goalies
  • Scored 1 goal in the season-opening loss at Toronto
  • 2-2-0 overall, scoring has been uneven away from the Devils rout

Tampa sits at 3-1-0 and has won 3 straight, every one of them at Amalie. Those wins came at a steady clip: 3-1 over Washington, 4-1 over Philadelphia, 3-2 over Minnesota. In the last one, Anthony Cirelli and John Carlson scored 36 seconds apart in the 1st, Carlson added a power-play goal, and the Lightning shut the Wild out over the final 20 minutes. Tampa doesn't win pretty. It gets a lead and makes you chase it.

The one game Tampa played away from home this season was a 5-1 loss to the Rangers, and that's the open question for Saturday. The Islanders are 2-2-0 overall and 2-0 at home. Their home opener on October 3 was a 6-0 beating of the Devils, and Matthew Schaefer, the reigning Calder winner, wore an "A" for the first time in that game. Their road nights have been harder, starting with a 2-1 loss in Toronto in the opener where Emil Heineman scored the only Isles goal.

The Lightning's injury list is mostly down the middle. Yanni Gourde (hip) is on the injured non-roster list and Dominic James (hand) is on IR, which leaves Tampa thin at center behind Cirelli. On the back end, Emil Lilleberg (undisclosed) was ruled out on October 5 and expected to miss about a week, so he's right on the edge of a return for this one. Whether he plays decides how much the Lightning have to lean on Carlson and the top pairs.

The best storyline on the Islanders' side is in net. Semyon Varlamov started against the Rangers on October 6, his first start in 676 days, after 2 partial knee replacements. With Ilya Sorokin as the No. 1, Long Island suddenly has a real 1-2 tandem again, and which of them faces Andrei Vasilevskiy on Saturday is worth watching. Sorokin against Vasilevskiy is the matchup the building wants to see.

10/08WvsWild3-2
10/05WvsFlyers4-1
10/03WvsCapitals3-1
10/01L@Rangers1-5
10/08WvsBlackhawks4-1
10/06L@Rangers2-5
10/03WvsDevils6-0
09/30L@Maple Leafs1-2

In style, this is Tampa's structure against a home team that has kept the puck out of its own net at UBS so far. The Lightning have given up 1 or 2 goals in each of their 3 wins. Getting 3 past a rested Islanders goalie in a loud building is harder than doing it at home in front of their own fans. The Islanders' issue is the other end. Outside the Devils rout, goals have been hard to come by.

Puck drop is 7:30 PM ET. The schedule gives Tampa its first road test since the Rangers loss, and the Islanders a chance to show their home start wasn't just a soft opponent on opening night. It's a good early-October read on both clubs.

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