The other side of Tampa's last week is its own net. The Lightning gave up 6 in Colorado, 5 in Utah and 4 at home to a Winnipeg team that had been struggling to score, so that's 15 goals against in 3 games. Tampa has outscored all of that, but the margin has been thin. Nashville has scored 3 goals in 3 of its last 4 games, so the Predators can at least keep this up and down.
Nashville's record looks worse than its games have been. It has 5 losses past regulation already. Of its last 4 losses, 3 were by 1 goal: 2-3 in Pittsburgh, then 3-4 to the Islanders and 3-4 to the Capitals at home. The Predators also have games where nothing works, like the 6-0 loss in Boston. And they have games where everything does, like the 6-2 home win over Colorado, the same Avalanche team that beat Tampa 6-3. When this team is good it can beat anybody. Its problem is getting through the 3rd period.
Tampa's injuries are all at center. Yanni Gourde is on the injured non-roster list with a hip problem, and Zemgus Girgensons is listed out. That takes 2 of the bottom-six centers who win the boring defensive-zone draws and kill penalties. Nashville has no injuries listed and has been working on its defense, claiming Daemon Hunt off waivers from Minnesota on October 24 after trading for Jayden Struble earlier in the month.
This game comes down to whether Nashville's 5-on-5 effort lasts 60 minutes against a Lightning team that just found its power play. If the Predators stay out of the box and make Tampa beat them at even strength, their recent 1-goal games suggest they can steal one. If they take penalties, Kucherov and Guentzel now have a power play that's shooting the puck, and that's a hard way to protect a lead.