Who is favored in Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers?

Tampa Bay Lightning is favored on the moneyline.

Who is predicted to win Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers?

Our pick is New York Rangers. New York's rebuilt blue line hasn't been graded by the market yet, and the price still reads like last season's Rangers. If Shesterkin gets the home opener, expect this to tighten toward New York.

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers

Thu Oct 1·7:00 PM ET·New York, NY

By JR·2 min read

TBL(0-0)

NYR(0-1-0)

Thursday 10/017:00 PM

TLDR: Tampa Bay starts its season at Madison Square Garden, and the New York Rangers get the first look at what Chris Drury insists is a retool, not a rebuild. Game 1 of 82 doesn't decide anything, but it's the first honest look at both teams.

THU OCT 1, 7:00 PM

Lightning

(0-0)

Rangers

(0-1-0)

Tampa Bay opens its season at Madison Square Garden with Kucherov, Point, Guentzel and Vasilevskiy intact, though Yanni Gourde and Dominic James are both on injured reserve. The Rangers counter with a remade defense built around Durzi, Pettersson and rookie Alberts Smits, plus Shesterkin in goal. The Lightning are the road favorite; the goalie announcements and how New York's new defense handles Tampa's top lines should decide it.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Kucherov-Point top line intact
Hagel-Cirelli-Guentzel handles tough matchups
Vasilevskiy anchors the net
Gourde (hip) out, non-roster IR
Dominic James (hand) out, center depth thinned
Road opener at the Garden

New York Rangers

Durzi and Pettersson added to the blue line
Shesterkin in goal, at home
Rempe back healthy up front
Rookie Smits faces elite forwards immediately
Defense pairs are new and untested together
Top-end scoring trails Tampa's top 6

The Lightning arrive with the core still in place. Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Victor Hedman lead a retooled roster, and NHL.com's preseason projection had Ilya Mikheyev skating with Brayden Point and Kucherov, while Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli and Jake Guentzel make up a second line that can score and handle the tough matchups. That's 2 lines most teams can't match, and it's why Tampa is the road favorite on Thursday, October 1.

New York spent the summer on its blue line. Sean Durzi and Marcus Pettersson came over in trades, and Alberts Smits, the 5th overall pick in the 2026 Draft, made the opening-night roster on defense. Mike Sullivan's group also has Matt Rempe back up front after he recovered from injury, with Igor Shesterkin and Joonas Korpisalo as the goalie pair. The board has Tampa as the clear favorite, but not by a lopsided margin.

Last season went badly for the Rangers, and Drury's line this fall has been that the club is "retooling and not rebuilding." The Garden crowd will get its first real verdict on that Thursday, against a Tampa team that doesn't need a camp's worth of competition to figure out its top 6.

The Lightning aren't fully healthy to start the season. Yanni Gourde (hip) and Dominic James (hand) were both placed on non-roster injured reserve, which takes 2 centers out of the bottom of the lineup. Tampa's top 6 won't change, but the 3rd and 4th lines will lean on players further down the depth chart than the coaches planned.

Neither club has confirmed a starting goalie yet, and that's the storyline to watch before 7:00 PM ET. If it's Vasilevskiy against Shesterkin, the opener becomes a goaltending duel between 2 of the best in the league. The Rangers' new-look defense, rookie included, will also find out quickly what it's like to defend Kucherov and Point.

For the Rangers, the season is about proving the summer changes add up to more than depth. For Tampa, it's about showing the core still has enough to carry a lineup that's already down 2 centers on opening night. Both of those questions start getting answered at the Garden.

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