Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild

Sat Nov 77:00 PM CTESPN+Saint Paul, MN
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Tampa Bay hasn't lost at home and Minnesota has been one of the best road teams in hockey, and on Saturday, November 7 the Lightning visit Grand Casino Arena, where neither of those records counts. The Wild get the better rest picture in the standings and the worse one on the schedule.

FINAL · SUN NOV 8, 1:00 AMESPN+
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Tampa Bay is 8-0 at home but 2-3-2 on the road, and this game opens a 4-game trip against a Minnesota team that has won 5 straight away from home and 3 straight overall as of Friday. The Wild are on the second night of a back-to-back with Gustavsson still out, so the goalie decision matters, while both Folignos are expected back and Michael McCarron is questionable. Minnesota's goaltending against a Lightning attack that has scored 4 or more in each of its last 5 games is the matchup that decides it.

Tampa Bay Lightning
  • Scored 4+ goals in each of the last 5
  • A day of rest, while Minnesota plays a back-to-back
  • Mikheyev 2 goals, Vasilevskiy sharp in last outing
  • 2-3-2 away from home this season
  • Vasilevskiy at .887 save percentage this season
  • Gourde (hip) still out for the trip opener
Minnesota Wild
  • Wallstedt 4-0-1, 2.06 GAA in last 5
  • Boldy, Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek all on point streaks
  • Hynes expects both Folignos back Saturday
  • 2nd night of a back-to-back, Gustavsson still out
  • McCarron questionable after leaving Friday's game
  • Faber and Spurgeon still missing from the blue line

Start with the split that defines Tampa Bay. The Lightning are 10-3-2, and the 4-1 win over Chicago made them 8-0 at home, so away from Amalie Arena they're 2-3-2. Both of their recent road losses went 5-4, at Utah and at Nashville. The offense showed up both nights and the team in front of Andrei Vasilevskiy didn't. This game opens a 4-game road trip, and that's where we find out whether the home dominance travels.

Minnesota reaches puck drop at 7:00 PM CT on the second night of a home back-to-back, after beating San Jose 4-1 the night before with 2 power-play goals. That's the scheduling wrinkle to watch. Jesper Wallstedt has carried the crease, going 4-0-1 in his last 5 with a 2.06 GAA, and Filip Gustavsson is still on injured reserve with a hip injury. So who starts the back half matters more than usual.

The Wild's game has been simple. After the 4-2 win in Philadelphia, Matt Boldy said that when they're "detailed and play the right way, and we're hard and defend, the offense comes." That night Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek and Kirill Kaprizov each stretched point streaks to 6 games, Quinn Hughes did the same, and Minnesota won its 5th straight road game. It's a deep, structured team, and right now it's beating people at both ends of the ice.

11/06WvsBlackhawks4-1
11/04WvsRed Wings4-2
10/31L@Predators4-5
10/29WvsJets6-4
10/25L@Mammoth4-5
11/07WvsSharks4-1
11/04W@Flyers4-2
11/01W@Capitals5-1
10/30LvsIslanders3-4
10/28W@Mammoth3-1

Tampa Bay is playing well too. Ilya Mikheyev scored twice against Chicago, Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh chipped in from the back end, and Vasilevskiy had a shutout going until 49 seconds remained. That outing helped a season line that still reads .887 with a 2.75 GAA, which is not the Vasilevskiy people are used to. The difference here is the setting. In St. Paul the Lightning face a team that defends a lot better than the Blackhawks, and that has won 3 straight as of Friday.

The injury news has moved Minnesota's way since Friday. John Hynes said after the Sharks game that he expects both Marcus Foligno and Nick Foligno to play against the Lightning, which puts real heaviness back into a bottom six that has been short-handed for weeks. The new question is Michael McCarron, who didn't finish the Sharks win after a physical 3rd period and is questionable; he's been centering the 2nd line between Blake Coleman and Bobby Brink, so a scratch shuffles the middle of the lineup even with the Folignos back. Brock Faber skated with the team for the first time Thursday and Jared Spurgeon is expected to travel on the upcoming road trip, but neither is an option for this game. The Wild blue line is still thinner than they'd like.

For Tampa Bay, Yanni Gourde (hip) is the only name on the report, and he's on track to return at some point during this trip. Winnipeg is next on the schedule, so the Lightning have their own quick turnaround after this one. Two good teams, two schedule quirks, and a matchup between a home record that's perfect and a road record that's ordinary.

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