Vancouver has a game to play before this one: a trip to San Jose. That result settles whether the Canucks come home with back-to-back wins or another loss on the pile. As of today they are 3-10-1, last in the Pacific and last in the league, and their only win in the last 5 was a 6-5 shootout-style track meet in Anaheim. Whatever happens in San Jose, the 14-game shape of this season won't change much by Saturday.
The Canucks' issue isn't one bad night. They gave up 4 or more goals in every one of the last 5 games, 6 to Carolina and 5 to Detroit among them, and in the 4 losses they scored 2 or 3 every time. A team that can't get the game under 4 goals has to win track meets, and except for Anaheim it hasn't been fast enough to do that.
In goal, Thatcher Demko is still on injured reserve with the hip. Henrik Sedin's stated hope is a return before Christmas, and a follow-up visit in Denver found no setback but also gave no timeline. Vancouver opened the season with Kevin Lankinen and Leevi Merilainen as the tandem, and nobody has been named for Saturday. Against a McKenna-Matthews line that has been tilting the ice, whoever starts will be busy.
So what decides it? Can Toronto's depth hold up long enough for the top line to win the game? In Seattle it couldn't. The Leafs got 7 points from 2 players and still lost because the other 3 lines and a short-handed defense leaked. Vancouver's attack hasn't punished anybody lately. A Leafs team with an extra day of rest and possibly Tanev back is a very different look from the one that blew it late in Seattle, and if Tanev isn't back, Toronto is asking Matthews and the kid to carry it again.