Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights

Sat Oct 177:00 PM PTESPN+Las Vegas, NV
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Pittsburgh's weekend gets harder before it gets here: a Friday night in Colorado, then a flight to T-Mobile Arena for a Saturday date with a Vegas team that just put 6 on Calgary. Puck drop is 7:00 PM PT.

SUN 10/18, 7:00 PMESPN+

Pittsburgh gets to Vegas on the 2nd night of a back-to-back after Friday's game in Colorado, with 2 regular defensemen on injured reserve and only 1 win in its last 5 as of Thursday. Vegas is rested and coming off a 6-2 win over Calgary, while Crosby, Karlsson and the returning Rust have kept the Penguins' offense going even as they lose. The game probably turns on whether Pittsburgh's thin, tired defense can hold up late against Eichel and Marner.

Pittsburgh Penguins
  • Crosby broke out with 2 goals in Chicago
  • Karlsson piling up assists from the back end
  • Rust back from IR, scored in his debut
  • 2nd night of a back-to-back after Colorado
  • Graves and van Riemsdyk both on injured reserve
  • Allowed 3+ goals in 4 of the last 5
Vegas Golden Knights
  • Rested at home while Pittsburgh flies in from Denver
  • Scored 3 in the 3rd to beat Calgary
  • Marner already winning games, OT winner vs Kings
  • Olofsson, Cormier and Wotherspoon all injured
  • Minnesota snapped their 4-game win streak

This is an early preview, and the Penguins have one more game before it counts. They play at Colorado on Friday, October 16. Whatever happens in Denver decides the record they bring to Vegas and the legs they bring with them, because they'll be playing their 2nd game in 2 nights. Vegas played Calgary on Thursday and won't play again until this one. That leaves one team rested and at home, and one team coming off a game at altitude and a late flight. The Golden Knights are the rested one.

Pittsburgh hasn't had trouble scoring. They put up 2 or 3 goals in each of their last 5 and are 1-4 in that stretch as of Thursday, with 4 of those losses by 1 or 2 goals. Sidney Crosby scored twice in the 5-3 loss in Chicago to end a slow start. Erik Karlsson had 2 assists in that game and has been driving the offense from the blue line. Bryan Rust scored in his season debut at Washington after coming off injured reserve, and Andrei Kuzmenko is now in the lineup too. The forwards are fine. The issue is the other end of the ice.

Vegas has looked like Vegas under first-year head coach Ryan Craig. Jack Eichel passed 700 career points on opening night. Mitch Marner won the Kings game in overtime for the 4th straight win. Minnesota ended that streak, but the Knights answered by beating Calgary 6-2 at home: 2-0 after the 1st, 3 more in the 3rd. They did it without Olofsson, Cormier and Wotherspoon, and none of those absences showed up on the scoreboard. No odds are posted yet, which makes sense with Pittsburgh still having a game to play.

10/14L@Blackhawks3-5
10/10WvsStars2-1
10/09L@Blue Jackets2-3
10/07L@Capitals3-5
10/05LvsJets2-3
10/16WvsFlames6-2
10/14W@Predators5-2
10/13L@Wild2-4
10/11WvsKings2-1
10/09WvsMaple Leafs4-3

The Penguins' biggest problem is on defense. Ryan Graves and Trevor van Riemsdyk are both on injured reserve, so the defensive depth is thin. A thin defense on the 2nd night of a back-to-back, against a team with Eichel and Marner down the middle and on the wing, is a lot to ask. Justin Brazeau is also on IR with a lower-body injury, which takes some size off the right side. Pittsburgh has allowed 3 or more goals in 4 of its last 5. That has decided most of their games, and Vegas is a hard place to fix it.

Watch the 3rd period. Vegas pulled away from Calgary late, and fatigue on a back-to-back usually shows up after the 2nd intermission. If Crosby and Karlsson keep it close through 40 minutes, Pittsburgh's scoring is good enough to win it. If they don't, Vegas has been finishing teams off lately. What happens in Colorado on Friday will tell you a lot about which way this one goes.

Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights — Penguins Hit Vegas on the Back End of a Back-to-Back | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush