The biggest question is in goal. Linus Ullmark had been one of the best goalies in the league to start the season, 7-1 with a .945 save percentage, before a lower-body strain against Florida on October 21. He went on IR with an estimated return around November 7, so Wednesday comes a few days early unless he is ahead of schedule. Without him, Samuel Ersson has carried a 3.79 GAA, and the results show it: Ottawa has allowed 4 or more goals in 4 of its last 5 games.
Ottawa can still score plenty. The Senators put up 7 on the Rangers and 5 on both the Kings and Sharks during this stretch, and even the Anaheim loss started with 3 goals in 1 period. As of Monday they have 19 points to Buffalo's 17, good for 3rd in the Atlantic. Ottawa is a top-heavy team that can win a high-scoring game. What it hasn't shown is that it can protect a lead without Ullmark.
Buffalo has won in different ways. The Sabres shut out San Jose, outlasted Anaheim 7-6, and blocked 30 shots in the win over the Kings. Their power play scored twice in LA, and that matters against an Ottawa team that just gave up 2 power-play goals in Anaheim. Some skepticism is fair, since 3 wins over California teams is not much of a test. The Sabres also lost to Philadelphia and Washington before the trip, and this is a much better measure of where they stand.
Buffalo has injury problems of its own. Centers Jiri Kulich and Konsta Helenius are both day-to-day, and the defense is missing Conor Timmins, Matt Grzelcyk and Jack Rathbone. Alex Lyon had a setback and has no timeline, which leaves Buffalo thin in goal too. Watch Wednesday's lineup news closely: if both centers play, Buffalo has the deeper forward group. Puck drop is 7:30 PM ET.
