Toronto's problems are real, and they're new. John Tavares left the 5-4 overtime loss to Buffalo in the 3rd period after a collision with Josh Norris, and the Leafs announced before the Islanders game that he's week to week with a lower-body injury. Chris Tanev was already gone, going on injured reserve retroactive to October 10 after an upper-body injury in a collision with Artturi Lehkonen during the win over Colorado. The team says it's doing more testing to see if it's longer-term. That's a top-6 center and the defenseman who eats the hard minutes, both out at the same time.
The first game without both of them showed it. The Islanders won 4-1 in Toronto, and the Leafs actually outshot them 29-20. Ilya Sorokin stopped 28 of 29, Colton Sissons scored the only Toronto goal, and New York led 2-0 after 2 periods before Anthony Duclair, Bo Horvat and a Simon Holmstrom empty-netter finished it. A 29-shot night that produces 1 goal against a hot goalie doesn't say much on its own. But it's still a lineup trying to figure out who plays where without its middle-six center and its top penalty-kill defenseman.
That's what makes this one interesting. San Jose's young forwards can push the pace, and a Leafs blue line without Tanev is the kind of matchup that gives Celebrini and Stenberg room to work. The flip side is what happens when the Sharks get a lead. Detroit just showed the formula: throw everything at them late, pull the goalie, and wait for the coverage to break. Toronto has more finishing talent than Detroit even shorthanded, and the Leafs only need one 3rd-period push to take advantage.
Puck drop is 7:30 PM ET Monday, October 19, which caps a road swing for San Jose that already included stops in Nashville and Detroit. Watch the 3rd period. If the Sharks can protect a lead for 60 minutes, they're good enough to take a point or 2 out of Toronto. If they can't, the Leafs have shown they can outlast a team even when their best defensive pieces are out.