Tampa Bay's season started badly with a 5-1 loss at Madison Square Garden to the Rangers, in which Nikita Kucherov scored the only goal. The Lightning have looked much more like themselves since. They held Washington to 1 goal in the home opener, with Andrei Vasilevskiy making 19 saves and Charle-Edouard D'Astous, Conor Geekie and Jake Guentzel scoring. Then they pulled away late on Philadelphia, scoring twice in the 3rd period of a 4-1 win. Kucherov scored and added an assist in that one.
The matchup to watch is Tampa Bay's top 6 against a Minnesota defense that's shorter than its numbers suggest. Guentzel has been the Lightning's most dangerous forward early, Brandon Hagel is feeding him, and Kucherov is producing like Kucherov. So far the Wild haven't faced a forward group with that kind of finishing. Without Faber, the minutes he'd normally absorb against top lines go to someone else.
Tampa Bay is shorthanded too. Emil Lilleberg was hurt against Washington and was expected to miss about a week, which puts his return right around Thursday without guaranteeing it. Yanni Gourde (hip) and Dominic James (hand) are both on non-roster injured reserve, which thins the Lightning's center depth behind the top 2 lines.
Both teams have kept the scoring low so far: each has allowed 1 goal in every win. Minnesota is doing it with a backup-turned-starter in goal and a reshuffled defense. Tampa Bay has the former Vezina winner behind a defense that's getting back to full strength. It's an early-October road game for the Wild, but it's also an honest look at whether their start holds up against a team with real scoring.