Argentina vs Switzerland

Argentina hasn't lost a match at this World Cup, and Switzerland has never once beaten them in 7 tries across 6 decades. One of those streaks ends Saturday.

Bush’s PicksPicks madeJul 8, 9:20 AM CT

-277ARGSUI+284

-130ARG -0.5SUI +0.5+127

+135Over 2.5Under 2.5-135

Best BetArgentina to win

Argentina is the deeper, more talented side, hasn't lost at this World Cup, and has beaten Switzerland every single time these two have ever met. The Egypt game was a wobble, not a pattern, and this roster creates and finishes chances at a rate nobody left in the bracket can match, Messi included. Backing Argentina to see out the tie, even if it takes extra time or penalties, is the side of this that gets rewarded.

Argentina

• +Unbeaten and dominant through 5 matches
• +Messi in career-defining scoring form
• −Conceded twice in a hurry against Egypt
• −Needed a stoppage-time winner just to survive round of 16

Switzerland

• +Zero goals conceded across their last 2 knockout matches
• +Xhaka and Akanji anchor a disciplined, veteran spine
• −Losing tournament-leading scorer Manzambi to injury
• −Have never beaten Argentina in 7 tries

Lisandro Martinez went off with a strained muscle in the 71st minute against Egypt, and by all accounts he trained through the week and is expected back alongside Cristian Romero, who battled through his own knee scare against Austria and now looks fully right again. Scaloni's spine barely needs a caveat: it's the same 4-3-3 that's carried Argentina through 5 matches with Messi, Julian Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez up top. Switzerland doesn't have that luxury. Johan Manzambi, their tournament-leading scorer with 3 goals and 2 assists, hurt his knee in training and already missed the Colombia shootout, and head coach Murat Yakin said flatly there wasn't time to get him back for Saturday's 9:00 PM ET kickoff, which pushes Switzerland into an even more conservative double-pivot look.

Switzerland4-2-3-1

Argentina4-3-3

Both sides needed a scare to get here, just different kinds. Argentina fell behind Egypt 2-0 before goals from Cristian Romero, Messi and Enzo Fernandez in the final stretch turned a near-disaster into a 3-2 win, with Messi's strike his 21st World Cup finals goal and his 8th of this tournament, tops in the Golden Boot race. Switzerland took the calmer road: 120 goalless minutes against Colombia, then a 4-3 shootout with Ruben Vargas burying the winner to reach Switzerland's first quarterfinal since 1954. That contrast, a team that leaks goals in bursts against one that hasn't conceded in regulation through 2 straight knockout games, is exactly why the market treats this as a clear but not overwhelming Argentina favorite, priced near 74% to reach the semis.

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Total

Argentina(5-0-0)

-0.5

-130

-277

o2.5

+135

Switzerland(3-2-0)

+0.5

+127

+284

u2.5

-135

AdvanceAdvance-0.5+0.5

o2.5u2.5

Whale Buys

That gap matters because Switzerland isn't just parking the bus and hoping. Manuel Akanji and Nico Elvedi have been genuinely excellent, and Granit Xhaka, playing his 146th cap, still dictates tempo well enough to slow anybody down. The path to an upset runs through discipline: stay compact, make Argentina finish from distance, hope Dan Ndoye gets one look on the counter. Problem is, Messi has made a career out of finding the one crack in a low block, and Argentina's front three of Messi, Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez brings more individual movement than Switzerland has had to deal with all tournament.

Argentina

(5-0-0)

Jul 7WvsEgypt3-2

Jul 3WvsCape Verde3-2

Jun 27WvsJordan3-1

Jun 22WvsAustria2-0

Jun 16WvsAlgeria3-0

Switzerland

(3-2-0)

Jul 7DvsColombia0-0

Jul 2WvsAlgeria2-0

Jun 24WvsCanada2-1

Jun 18WvsBosnia-Herzegovina4-1

Jun 13DvsQatar1-1

The tape tells it straight. Argentina attacks front-footed and can survive stretches of chaos because of what's on the bench, with Alvarez, De Paul and Enzo Fernandez all capable of flipping a match on their own. Switzerland's identity is control and patience, and it's held up through 2 knockout rounds without conceding a goal across 90 or 120 minutes. Neither approach is broken. One of them ends Saturday night.

Argentina

(2)

• ReturningLisandro Martinez — recovered from muscle strain suffered vs Egypt
• ReturningCristian Romero — fully fit after knee scare vs Austria

Switzerland

(1)

• OutJohan Manzambi — knee injury in training, missed Colombia, unlikely back

Whichever way the shape of the game goes, Switzerland's history with Argentina is grim reading: 7 meetings, 0 wins, dating back to 1966, including a 1-0 loss the last time these two met at a World Cup in 2014. History doesn't play the match, but breaking a streak like that against this version of Messi, at this stage, is about as hard a first as it gets.