Norway vs England

Erling Haaland has been unstoppable for a month, and Norway is one win from a semifinal nobody outside Oslo saw coming. England has Bellingham, Kane and a deeper roster, and now has to be the team that finally slows him down. Kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium is 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, July 11 — lose and one of these runs is over for good.

Bush’s PicksPicks madeJul 8, 9:07 AM CT

+190NORENG-190

+104NOR +0.5ENG -0.5-111

-130-125Over 2.5Under 2.5+125

Best BetEngland to win

England is the somewhat quiet favorite here, and the market has it about right. Bellingham and Kane are playing with the kind of chemistry that wins knockout football, and Norway still hasn't kept a clean sheet all tournament. Haaland can single-handedly drag this to penalties, but on talent and depth England should find a way through, whether that's in regulation or after 120 minutes.

Norway

• +Haaland is the tournament's most dangerous scorer
• +Just knocked out five-time champions Brazil
• −Conceded in every match played this World Cup
• −England's attack has more proven depth

England

• +Bellingham and Kane form a lethal partnership
• +Arguably the deepest squad left in the bracket
• −Right-back spot has been a revolving door of injuries
• −Lost midfield leader Henderson for the rest of the tournament

England's setup starts with good news at right-back: Reece James looks fit enough to start after missing time with a hamstring problem, even with Jarell Quansah suspended and unavailable. The bigger loss is in midfield, where Jordan Henderson is done for the tournament after a freak wrist injury suffered celebrating the win over Mexico — his legs and his voice won't be there Saturday. Norway gets a boost of its own: Julian Ryerson is back from a thigh injury and expected to slot in at right-back, giving Stale Solbakken a full-strength spine of Ajer, Heggem, Berge and Odegaard shielding Erling Haaland up top.

England4-3-3

Norway4-3-3

Both sides arrive with real knockout scar tissue. England needed a Harry Kane penalty and a Jude Bellingham double to survive Mexico while playing a man down, while Norway had to grind past Brazil with Haaland scoring twice in the final stretch. Neither team has had time to exhale, and this one plays out in Miami heat that turns a 90-minute knockout into a fitness test as much as a tactical one.

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Total

Norway(4-0-1)

+0.5

+104

+190

o2.5

-125

England(4-1-0)

-0.5

-108

-186

u2.5

+125

AdvanceAdvance+0.5-0.5

o2.5u2.5

Whale Buys

That grind shows up in the numbers. Norway hasn't kept a clean defense together all tournament, and England's front three has looked lethal, but Haaland is exactly the kind of player who erases a game plan in one touch. The market gives England the edge to advance the tie — 65.5%, per Polymarket — but that number covers extra time and penalties, not just 90 clean minutes.

Norway

(4-0-1)

Jul 5WvsBrazil2-1

Jun 30WvsIvory Coast2-1

Jun 26LvsFrance1-4

Jun 22WvsSenegal3-2

Jun 16WvsIraq4-1

England

(4-1-0)

Jul 5WvsMexico3-2

Jul 1WvsDR Congo2-1

Jun 27WvsPanama2-0

Jun 23DvsGhana0-0

Jun 17WvsCroatia4-2

Neither team is walking in shorthanded on quality, but the margins are thin. England's tournament has been about talent bailing out shaky stretches, while Norway has ridden Haaland and a suddenly stout back four since Ryerson worked his way back into the XI.

Norway

(1)

• ReturningJulian Ryerson — back from thigh injury, expected to start at right-back

England

(3)

• ReturningReece James — hamstring issue, expected fit to start
• SuspendedJarell Quansah — unavailable for the quarterfinal
• OutJordan Henderson — wrist injury from Mexico win celebration, needs surgery

Whoever survives this one gets to keep dreaming, and both fan bases know it. England has the deeper roster and arguably the two best in-form attackers left in the bracket; Norway has the single best player on the field. That's a hell of a way to spend a Saturday night.