The tactical riddle for Garcia is whether unleashing De Bruyne and Doku from the jump gives Belgium enough control to match Spain's possession game, or whether it just opens up space in behind for Yamal and Olmo to exploit. Spain has been here before and know exactly how to play a lead. Belgium has shown flashes of brilliance and defensive lapses in the same 90 minutes all tournament. Whichever version shows up will decide if this stays a chess match or turns into a shootout.
Yamal has been the best player on the field in every match Spain has played, a two-footed problem who drifts inside from the right and either finishes it himself or sets up someone who will. He's the swing factor against a Belgium back line that has looked shaky in stretches even while winning. On the other side, De Ketelaere is playing with the kind of confidence that turns good players into tournament heroes, and if Lukaku gets thrown into the mix too, Belgium suddenly has more firepower than Spain has shown all tournament defending against.
Portugal1-0
Austria3-0
Uruguay1-0
Saudi Arabia4-0
Cape Verde0-0
United States4-1
Senegal3-2
New Zealand5-1
Iran0-0
Egypt1-1The bracket doesn't care about styles or reputations. Spain has to prove its perfect defensive record holds up against a team that just hung 4 on a co-host. Belgium has to prove the attack that showed up against the US wasn't a one-off against a shaky opponent. Whoever adjusts better in real time probably wins this.
- DoubtfulNico Williams — groin issue flared up during group stage
- DoubtfulYeremy Pino — AC joint sprain, has yet to feature since
- ReturningKevin De Bruyne — rested vs USA for fitness, expected back
- ReturningJeremy Doku — benched vs USA on tactical decision
Extra time and penalties are always live in a game like this, especially with Belgium already having gone the distance once this tournament against Senegal. If it gets that far, De Bruyne's experience and Courtois' shot-stopping give Belgium a puncher's chance no matter what the run of play says.