Bills training camp kicked off this week at St. John Fisher University, and the first real storyline out of Buffalo wasn't a quarterback battle or an injury scare, it was Keon Coleman dropping a ball in the rain during 7-on-7s. Josh Allen didn't blink. He came right back to Coleman on the next rep, and Coleman hauled it in downfield. Small moment, but it says a lot about where this receiver room stands heading into year three.
Coleman didn't dodge the bigger question afterward. Asked if he has something to prove, he said "somewhat yes," then got a lot more direct about it: "I'm on my third year and I haven't done anything I said I wanted to do production-wise." That's not spin. That's a guy who knows the tape backs it up.
The tape isn't pretty. Coleman flashed as a rookie with 29 catches for 556 yards and 4 touchdowns, then regressed hard in year two to 38-404-4, including three games where he didn't even suit up. Buffalo's front office has sent mixed signals about why. GM Brandon Beane has publicly defended him, calling it "not an ability thing" and insisting Coleman has shown plenty when he's locked in. Owner Terry Pegula, meanwhile, pinned some of the blame on the old coaching staff for pushing to draft him in the first place. That's an awkward split for a guy trying to save his role.
And the role is genuinely in danger. Buffalo went out and traded for D.J. Moore this offseason, plus brought in a string of receivers on pre-draft visits, and Moore has already started eating into Coleman's snaps this summer. Best case for Coleman right now looks like the No. 3 job in the Bills passing game, and even that's not locked in given how much cap and draft capital Buffalo has spent trying to upgrade around him.
For fantasy purposes, the market has already made its call. Coleman's consensus ADP sits around 269 overall, WR105 in standard formats, which puts him in the 8th-to-10th round range on most boards and rostered in roughly 2.5% of leagues. That's dart-throw territory, not a bench stash you're prioritizing. If you're in a redraft league, he's a late-round bench flier at best, someone you grab in the final rounds betting on touchdown randomness in an Allen offense, not a guy you're penciling into your starting lineup in September.
Where it gets more interesting is the waiver-wire and stash angle. Buffalo's offense still runs through Allen, and touchdowns in that system come in bunches for whoever's open. If Moore struggles to gel early or gets banged up, Coleman is the direct beneficiary given the pecking order behind him. Dynasty managers in deeper leagues should hold, since he's still only 23 and the draft capital hasn't fully evaporated, but shallow-league dynasty rosters can cut bait without much regret.
The betting market context matters here too. Buffalo's win total and AFC futures haven't moved much off camp buzz, and rightfully so, this is a passing-game pecking order story, not a team outlook story. But keep an eye on any Bills receiving touchdowns or receptions props once books post them for the regular season. If Coleman starts stacking good practice reports through August, that's the kind of thing that can quietly juice his prop numbers before casual bettors notice.
The next few weeks of camp and preseason snaps will tell the real story. Watch how the Bills split first-team reps between Coleman and Moore once padded practices ramp up, and watch for any hint that Coleman's game-day role is shrinking further. Until then, he's exactly what the ADP says he is: a name worth knowing, not a name worth drafting yet.