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Nabers Practices Again, But Draft Risk Isn't Gone

By Vinnie the Gooch·3 min read
Nabers Practices Again, But Draft Risk Isn't Gone
via ESPN

Malik Nabers ran routes with Jaxson Dart for the first time since tearing his ACL, and the fantasy market barely blinked.

Wednesday was the first day in nearly ten months that Malik Nabers looked like a wide receiver again instead of a rehab patient. He worked the individual portion of a full-team practice, stopping, starting, cutting and running routes against air with quarterback Jaxson Dart, and by all accounts didn't hitch or limp doing it. Head coach John Harbaugh's review was blunt and about as good as it gets this time of year: he looked good.

Context matters here. This isn't a guy who rolled an ankle in June. Nabers tore his ACL and needed a full meniscus repair in Week 4 of last season, then had to go back under the knife earlier this year to clean up scar tissue and stiffness that was limiting his range of motion. Two surgeries in less than a year is not a small thing for a receiver whose entire game is built on suddenness. GM Joe Schoen's stance since minicamp has been cautious optimism, saying the team believes he'll be ready for Week 1, while Harbaugh has been more guarded, pegging him at roughly 70% through the rehab process as of June. Wednesday's session is the first real evidence that gap is closing.

The Giants aren't rushing anything. There's no PUP designation being used, which the front office is framing as a positive sign, but nobody in the building is committing to Week 1 against Dallas, still more than six weeks out. This is a day-to-day, listen-to-the-body situation, and that ambiguity is exactly why Nabers is still sitting in an odd spot on draft boards.

That spot is the whole fantasy story. Nabers is currently going in the back half of Round 3 on most sites, hovering around ADP 23 overall, which is aggressive for a guy who hasn't played a competitive snap since October and needed a second surgery mid-rehab. If he slides into Round 4 or even Round 5 as August progresses, he turns into one of the better value plays in fantasy drafts. At his current cost, you're paying close to a locked-in WR1 price for what is realistically a boom-or-bust WR2 profile until he's cleared for full contact and stringing together padded practices.

The opportunity, if the knee holds, is enormous. Wan'Dale Robinson and his 140 targets are gone from that offense, and the receiver room behind Nabers is thin: Darnell Mooney, Darius Slayton, Calvin Austin III and rookie Malachi Fields aren't scaring anyone. As a rookie, Nabers commanded roughly 30% of Giants targets, and there's nothing on this roster stopping him from approaching that share again the moment he's full-go. This isn't a crowded room where he has to fight for volume, it's a Nabers-or-bust passing attack.

The wild card is Dart under center. He flashed real rushing juice as a rookie, but the passing efficiency numbers were rough, bottom-third in catchable throw rate and yards per attempt among qualifying quarterbacks, and new offensive coordinator Matt Nagy doesn't exactly have a track record of unlocking passing games. That caps the ceiling here even in a best-case health scenario, which is worth factoring into where you're willing to spend a pick on Nabers.

For redraft leagues, treat this like a stock you're buying on a dip that hasn't fully bottomed. Let him fall past his current ADP if your league mates are pricing in full health, and target him as a high-upside WR2 rather than reaching as a true WR1. In dynasty, the calculus is different and more favorable, since talent and target share this concentrated rarely stay cheap for long, and a clean recovery erases this whole conversation by October.

Watch the next few weeks of camp closely. The move from individual drills to full team reps with contact, and eventually preseason game action, are the checkpoints that will actually move his price. Until then, every 'he looked good' update is a data point, not a verdict.

Malik NabersNew York GiantsJaxson DartJohn HarbaughJoe Schoen