TLDR: Brett McMurphy's Week 4 College Football Playoff and bowl projections shook up the field, adding nine newcomers and putting Alabama and Louisville in the playoff picture.
Brett McMurphy has been doing this long enough that his weekly bowl projections carry real weight around college football message boards, and his Week 4 update is a big one. On3's resident bowl-projection insider dropped a fresh CFP and bowl slate loaded with turnover, and it's only Week 4.
Brett McMurphy @Brett_McMurphy · My Week 4 College Football Playoff & bowl projections. Newcomers this week: App State, Cincinnati, Delaware, Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Northwestern, South Alabama, Texas State & Vanderbilt t.co/yQvIWFrY5H
The headline number is 9. That's how many teams are new to McMurphy's projections this week: App State, Cincinnati, Delaware, Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Northwestern, South Alabama, Texas State and Vanderbilt all punched their way in. That's a nine-team turnover from just last week's board, which tells you how unsettled the sport is a month into the season.
But the projection everyone's actually talking about is at the top of the bracket. McMurphy has both Alabama and Louisville sliding into this week's College Football Playoff field, a jump for both programs from where they sat a week ago.
Brett McMurphy@Brett_McMurphy9 new teams are in this week's projections, while Alabama & Louisville join this week's College Football Playoff projections
Alabama landing in the playoff picture isn't exactly a shock given the Crimson Tide's pedigree, but Louisville cracking a projected 12-team field is the kind of thing that gets a fan base fired up on a Sunday afternoon. Under the 12-team format, at-large bids and conference-champion slots shift week to week as results pile in, and McMurphy's model is essentially a live snapshot of where those bids would land if the season ended today.
It's worth remembering what these projections actually are: an early-season read, not a lock. Nine new teams showing up in one week means just as many teams could tumble back out by the time McMurphy runs it again after Week 5. Alabama and Louisville fans get to enjoy the moment, but the CFP picture is going to keep churning for another two months before it means anything official.
