Brock Purdy ties Josh Allen at 3-1 in NFL MVP odds

Allen opened the season alone as the betting favorite. Purdy has played his way up to the same price.

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Fueled by a four-game passer rating of 126.3, Brock Purdy catches Josh Allen at 3-1 odds to win NFL MVP. t.co/FHTUqW7UqP

The numbers back it up. Purdy leads the NFL in passer rating and has not been sacked once. He has 4 straight games with 2 or more touchdown passes and no sacks, which ties Peyton Manning in 2009 and Eli Manning in 2010 for the third-longest streak in NFL history, playoffs included. Only Andrew Luck and Dan Marino got to 5. He also has 3 straight games with 2+ touchdowns and no turnovers, tying a 49ers franchise record shared by Steve Young and Joe Montana. Going 4-0 helps too.

Behind the 2 co-favorites, Trevor Lawrence is 6-1 and Patrick Mahomes is 6.5-1. Allen is the reigning heavyweight here. He won the 2024 MVP, and his 2024 Bills beat the 49ers 35-10. He has a big Week 5 of his own against the Rams, but the matchup everyone in the Bay Area is staring at is Purdy's.

Purdy has been here before, and this exact opponent is what makes the 49ers beat nervous.

The history is ugly. In 2023 Purdy was firmly in the MVP conversation until he ran into a Macdonald defense, back when Macdonald was coordinating in Baltimore, and the campaign never recovered. Now Macdonald is Seattle's head coach, and last season his group held San Francisco to 9 combined points across the Week 18 game and the divisional-round playoff game. That is the nemesis part Eric Branch is talking about.

Seattle is 3-1 and gets this one at Lumen Field. Macdonald is saying all the polite stuff. He called Purdy a guy who 'can throw at all three levels' and throws 'into windows with timing that makes it hard to defend.' He is also the coach who has had Purdy's number. The 49ers come in scoring 30.5 a game, second in the league, and a zero next to 'sacks taken' that Seattle's pass rush would love to change.

So Sunday sets the price. If Purdy puts up another clean, multi-touchdown day against this defense, 3-1 probably becomes the outright favorite's number and the 2023 story is dead. If Macdonald does it to him again, Allen gets the top spot back and everyone remembers why 2023 ended the way it did.