No. 8 BYU sits under 40% CFP odds on Polymarket

Brett McMurphy pointed out the gap after Week 5, and it's a strange one.

Brett McMurphy

@Brett_McMurphy

No. 8 BYU is only team currently ranked in AP Top 12 w/less than 40% odds to make College Football Playoff

On3@On3

NEW: Best chances to make the College Football Playoff after Week 5📈 Odds, via Polymarket:

Every other team in the top 12 has the market believing in it. BYU, unbeaten and sitting in single digits, gets a shrug. The poll says contender. The money says probably not. When those 2 disagree this much, somebody's wrong, and you can bet on which one.

The resume isn't flashy, and that's the market's case. BYU opened by smashing Utah Tech 63-7, then beat Arizona 28-17 and Colorado State 41-23. The last one was a grind: a 17-10 win over TCU on October 3. That's 4-0, but nobody looks at that schedule and thinks juggernaut. Wins over an FCS team and a Mountain West team don't build a playoff case. Voters reward the zero in the loss column. Bettors want to know who you've actually beaten.

Polymarket isn't the only one doubting. According to On3's rundown of ESPN's Allstate Playoff Predictor after Week 5, ESPN had BYU at 34% to make the field. A computer model and a prediction market landing in the same spot is a lot harder to wave off as random noise.

There's also the Big 12 problem. BYU is 2nd in the conference right now, and in a league this crowded the easiest way in is winning the Big 12. Otherwise you're a 1-loss or 2-loss Big 12 team hoping the committee likes you more than some 3rd-place SEC or Big Ten team. History says it won't. Being unranked and unbeaten is one thing. Being at the mercy of the committee is another, and the market is pricing BYU like a team that's going to need help.

Next up, Iowa State (3-2) comes to LaVell Edwards Stadium, and BYU is roughly a 10.5-point favorite. Cover that and the 40% number starts climbing. Struggle at home against a team with 2 losses already and the market looks smart. If you believe in Provo, this is your buy-low window. If you don't, the market is telling you the AP is just being polite.