Red Sox Bet Below Slot Pays Off Fast on Draft Day Steal

By Vinnie the Gooch·2 min read
Red Sox Bet Below Slot Pays Off Fast on Draft Day Steal

Boston's surprise 20th overall pick just signed for way under slot, and the savings could reshape their entire draft class.

The Red Sox raised eyebrows when they took Jake Schaffner 20th overall out of North Carolina, a name that wasn't exactly circled on most public draft boards. He reportedly sat around No. 75 on MLB Pipeline's rankings, which made the pick feel like a reach in the moment. Boston clearly saw something different. Now the follow-through explains the strategy: sign the guy well under slot and use the extra cash to load up everywhere else on the board.

Jim Callis broke the signing bonus numbers and the scouting profile that made Schaffner Boston's guy.

Jim Callis: Surprise 1st-rder Jake Schaffner signs w/@RedSox for $2 million (slot 20 value = $4,373,900). @DiamondHeels SS, elite co
via @jimcallisMLB

Per Jim Callis, Schaffner signed for $2 million against a $4,373,900 slot value for the 20th pick. That's a savings north of $2.3 million that Boston can now spread across its remaining draft picks, a classic under-slot maneuver that teams use to overpay later-round guys who'd otherwise go to college instead of signing.

The player himself is the interesting part. Schaffner put together a ridiculous one-year run at UNC, slashing .356/.467/.552 with 19 doubles, 6 homers, 50 RBIs and 26 stolen bases in 29 attempts over 68 games. He also led all of Division I with 13 triples, which tells you everything about the plus-plus speed Callis flagged in his report. Add in a reliable shortstop glove and you've got a profile scouts love even if the draft models didn't fully buy in before the season.

Boston's front office has leaned into this exact type of value play for its whole draft class, betting that Schaffner's contact skills and speed give him a safer floor than typical first-round arms or raw power bats, with real upside if the Red Sox can help him tap into more thump. A hit-first, run-and-field shortstop is also just a good match for Fenway's gaps and the Green Monster geometry.

The real payoff of this deal won't show up until Boston's later picks start signing. Under-slot bonuses at the top of a draft class are basically fuel for over-slot deals lower down, letting a team scoop up talent that slipped for signability reasons. If the Red Sox turn that $2.3 million in savings into a couple of extra prospects who wouldn't have signed otherwise, this pick looks even smarter in hindsight than it does today.

Jake SchaffnerBoston Red SoxMLB Draft