Jaguars Backfield Chaos Is a Draft-Day Trap Waiting to Spring

By Bush Staff·3 min read
Jaguars Backfield Chaos Is a Draft-Day Trap Waiting to Spring
via ESPN

Jacksonville handed its backfield to two guys nobody trusts to be a bell cow, and that mess is exactly why smart drafters should be paying attention.

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Travis Etienne Jr. is gone, off to New Orleans, and the Jaguars didn't replace him with a clear successor. Instead they've got Bhayshul Tuten, a speedy second-year back who flashed as a rookie, and Chris Rodriguez Jr., a power runner they paid real money to bring in from Washington. Head coach Liam Coen isn't hiding the plan either. He straight up said Jacksonville is going to be "more by committee" this year, with each guy playing his role instead of trying to be a workhorse he isn't.

The roles sound clean on paper. Rodriguez, at 5-11 and 224 pounds, is the between-the-tackles hammer. He signed a two-year, 10 million dollar deal after three seasons in Washington where he ran for 920 yards and 10 touchdowns, and last year he actually graded out well efficiency-wise, posting 67 yards over expectation in 13 games, good for 23rd among all backs. Tuten, at 5-9 and 209 pounds with a 4.32 forty at the combine, is the home-run threat who's supposed to operate in space and take the top off. He only managed 307 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie, but the flashes were real, including a 20-yard burst against Buffalo.

Then there's LeQuint Allen Jr., last year's seventh-round pick, still lurking as the third-down guy. So this isn't even strictly a two-man split. It's three backs carving up touches in an offense that just lost its lead runner, and nobody in Jacksonville's building is promising a bell cow is going to emerge organically.

For fantasy purposes, this is the part that matters. ESPN's own Mike Clay projects Tuten to lead the group with 994 yards on 227 carries, more than double Rodriguez's projected 100 carries and 432 yards. That workload gap is why Tuten sits around consensus RB25 while Rodriguez is stuck closer to RB45. If those projections hold, Tuten is the one worth rostering as a low-end RB2, and Rodriguez is best treated as a handcuff or bench stash rather than a starter.

But projections aren't promises, especially in a backfield this unresolved. Clay has actually flagged Jacksonville as the shakiest running back room in the league, which tells you the range of outcomes here is wide. If Tuten struggles in pass protection or the Jaguars lean on Rodriguez in short-yardage and goal-line work, that touchdown equity shifts fast and drags Tuten's fantasy value down with it. Committees are volatile by nature, and this one has three moving parts instead of two.

The betting-market angle is worth a glance too. Jacksonville's win total and offensive expectations this season hinge partly on this backfield finding rhythm, and a muddled run game usually means more pass-heavy game scripts, which could actually boost the receivers and tight ends in that offense while capping whichever back isn't on the field for passing downs. Anyone building season-long win totals or player prop bets around this team should treat the backfield as a genuine question mark, not a settled unit.

The move for redraft leagues is simple: take Tuten where his ADP suggests, because he's the guy projected for the lion's share of touches and the speed to hit chunk plays. But don't sleep on Rodriguez as a cheap late-round dart throw, especially in leagues that reward touchdowns, since power backs tend to vulture goal-line work in committees like this. Dynasty managers should watch the first month closely. If Coen's stated plan actually holds and touches stay split three ways, this backfield could be a nightmare to roster all season. If one guy starts pulling away, be the first to buy in before the price catches up.

Keep an eye on preseason snap counts and any hints from Jacksonville's coaching staff once the games start counting. Committees have a way of resolving themselves once real bodies start hitting the ground, and whoever separates first in September is going to see his fantasy stock jump immediately.

Bhayshul TutenChris Rodriguez JrJacksonville JaguarsLiam CoenLeQuint Allen JrTravis Etienne Jr