Wilson's 2025 got wrecked before it ever got going. He was running a 33% target share through the first five weeks with Justin Fields slinging it, then a late-October knee sprain ended his season early, leaving him with just 36 catches for 395 yards and 4 touchdowns over 8 games missed down the stretch. That line scared off casual drafters. It shouldn't have, because the injury wasn't the alarming part, it was who was throwing him the ball.
The Jets blew that problem up this offseason. They traded Fields to the Chiefs and brought in Geno Smith from the Raiders, reuniting Wilson with a quarterback who's a legitimate NFL starter instead of a stopgap. Smith isn't a superstar, but he's accurate and he's shown he can feed a true WR1. That's the whole ballgame for Wilson's outlook: same alpha role, same route tree, a passer who can actually complete the ball to him downfield.
Volume has never been the question. In his three healthy seasons Wilson has posted 147, 169 and 154 targets, and he was on a 159-target pace through 6 weeks last year before the injury hit. A WR who commands that kind of workload on a full season, even with average quarterback play, is looking at a 90-catch, 1,000-yard floor. The touchdown equity is the only real swing factor, since he's never cracked 8 scores in a season, but better quarterback play in the red zone should nudge that number up, not down.
The Jets did add competition this offseason, drafting tight end Kenyon Sadiq and receiver Omar Cooper Jr. in the first round, plus midseason pickups John Metchie III and Adonai Mitchell are already in the room. None of that changes the pecking order. Wilson is still the WR1 on the depth chart and the clear focal point of the passing game; the additions raise the offense's ceiling, they don't cap his target share.
This is where the market gets interesting. ESPN's live ADP has Wilson at 38.4 and trending down another 6% day over day, while live mock drafters on FantasyFootballCalculator are grabbing him at 27.5, nearly a full round earlier. Kalshi's traders, meanwhile, only give him a 13% shot to finish as the WR1 overall, ranking him fourth at the position. Read that combination correctly: bettors aren't as bullish on him topping the WR board, but the drafting public is quietly pricing him like a mid-second-round asset, well ahead of where the more conservative ESPN consensus has him. I'm siding with the crowd on this one. A healthy alpha receiver going into his prime with an upgraded quarterback shouldn't be sliding into round 4 on any platform.
Verdict: draft Wilson as a locked-in WR2 with real WR1 ceiling, and don't wait for the ESPN number to come to you. Target him in the back half of round 2 or the top of round 3, right around where the live mock market already has him. If he falls to where ESPN's ADP suggests, it's a gift; don't assume it'll actually happen at your table.
