Argentina vs Cabo Verde: Polymarket Odds & Prediction

Argentina needed extra time to shake Cabo Verde, finally getting over the line 3-2 after the Blue Sharks equalized twice. This one was an inch away from being the biggest shock of the tournament.

Argentina survived, but they did not cruise. Cabo Verde matched the world champions punch for punch into extra time before Cristian Romero's header off a Messi corner finally settled it 3-2, sending the reigning champs through while the Blue Sharks went home with their heads high.

Messi did what Messi does, breaking the deadlock in the 29th minute off a ball over the top from Lisandro Martinez. From there, though, Argentina looked shaky. Cabo Verde's low block kept absorbing shots, and once Deroy Duarte punished a lapse in the back line, the champs were suddenly in a fight they didn't plan on having.

	1H	2H	FT
ARG	0	0	3
CAB	0	0	2

It took extra time to shake the underdogs loose. Lisandro Martinez restored the lead early in the additional 30, but Cabo Verde had one more haymaker in Sidny Lopes Cabral's long-range strike, forcing everyone in the building to sit up straight. Romero's header off a Messi set piece was the difference-maker, and it was set pieces and individual moments of quality, not control of the game, that got Argentina through.

Cabo Verde did not show up to just take a beating. Duarte's equalizer in the 59th minute was a statement, and Vozinha stood on his head behind them, coming up with 8 saves including a stop on a Messi direct free kick. This was not a team parking the bus and hoping — they pushed, they created, and they matched the defending champs blow for blow.

Cabral's stunning strike in extra time to tie it again was the moment the tiny island nation nearly wrote the biggest shock in World Cup history. It didn't happen, and the tournament ends here for Cabo Verde, but nobody in that building left thinking this team didn't belong on the same field as Messi's Argentina.

Our moneyline call on Argentina cashed, but barely — the bull case about Messi's form showed up in the 29th minute, while the bear case about Cabo Verde's bus-parking discipline got blown up entirely; this team attacked, absorbed, and nearly stole it. The spread pick did not survive contact. We had Argentina at -2.5, and a team that needed extra time to win by a single goal has no business covering a number that big — the bear note about a harder line to cover than expected was dead on. The total, though, landed clean: we took the over on 2.5 goals, and this game produced 5 of them, with the attacking football we expected showing up even if it came from both sides instead of just Argentina running up the score.

The market had this pegged as a near-lock going in, and for 29 minutes it looked that way. What actually happened was a knockout classic that nearly ended the defending champions' run before it really started. Argentina moves on with a group picture that now reads three wins in group play plus this survival act, while Cabo Verde exits with nothing but respect after going unbeaten in regulation for three straight results before this one finally got away from them.

Argentina

(5-0-0)

Jul 7Wvs