Argentina trailed Egypt 2-0 with 15 minutes to go and still found a way, storming back for a stoppage-time 3-2 win to book its spot in the quarterfinals.
Bush’s PicksPicks madeJul 6, 11:23 PM CT
-641ARG✓EGY+641
+111ARG -1.5✓EGY +1.5-111
+115Over 2.5✗Under 2.5-115
Best BetArgentina to win✓
Postgame
The total was the swing and a miss here, we bet on 2 gassed sides playing for a single moment and instead got 5 goals and a stoppage-time change of complexion, the exact track-meet scenario we waved off. But the other 2 calls were sharp, Argentina advancing was never really in doubt even at 2-0 down, and the spread lean on the Pharaohs at the number cashed because Argentina still had to grind out a 1-goal margin instead of the blowout the line was pricing in.
Pregame
Argentina walks in as the class of this bracket, and reaching the quarterfinals should be closer to a formality than the last round was against a side that just needed penalties to escape the Round of 32. Egypt's low block and Salah's moments of individual brilliance have been enough to survive to this point, but that identity is built for stealing a result, not beating a team with this much attacking talent outright. Take Argentina to get through, whatever the means.
Argentina
+Deepest, most talented roster left in the bracket
+Messi playing his sharpest football of the tournament
−Needed extra time just to beat Cape Verde
−Medina dealing with a minor fitness scare
Egypt
+Historic run has bred real belief and momentum
+Salah and Marmoush dangerous in transition
−Two defensive starters ruled out by injury
−Back line already worn down by two knockout games
Egypt didn't sit back and hope, it came out swinging. Yasser Ibrahim headed home in the 15th minute, and Mostafa Zico doubled the lead in the 67th, turning Atlanta into a genuine bracket-buster scare. Then the most talented roster left in the field remembered who it was. Messi found Cristian Romero for a 79th-minute header to cut the gap, ripped a first-time finish past Mostafa Shoubir 4 minutes later to level it, and Enzo Fernandez headed in a Lautaro Martinez cross in the 2nd minute of stoppage time to complete the turnaround. No red cards, just 2 late Egyptian yellows, as the Pharaohs' run finally cracked in regulation, not extra time.
Egypt4-4-2
Argentina4-1-3-2
Starting 11s.
Both sides trotted out exactly what got them here. Argentina's full spine, Martinez, Romero, De Paul, Mac Allister, Messi, started intact, while Egypt leaned on the same low block and Salah's spark that carried it through the group stage and the Round of 32. Argentina walked in as a heavy favorite to reach the quarterfinals, and for 78 minutes Egypt made that number look like a joke.
Show fees
FT
Spread
Advance
Total
Argentina(5-0-0)
3
-1.5
+111
-614
o2.5
+115
Egypt(1-3-1)
2
+1.5
-111
+641
u2.5
-115
In-Game
Whale Buys
Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.
The scoreline settled the bigger picture but not the smaller bets. Argentina closed a 1.5-goal favorite on the spread and a 2.5-goal favorite on the total, and it needed a stoppage-time header just to win by 1, with 5 total goals blowing well past that number.
Our moneyline call on Argentina held up, though not comfortably. The bull case pointed to Messi as the tournament's most lethal weapon, and he delivered both a goal and the equalizing sequence, but the bear case about Egypt not cracking under pressure looked dead right for most of the night before it finally gave. The under call whiffed hard, this turned into 5 goals instead of the low-event, one-moment finish we expected from two gassed sides. The spread lean on Egypt at the number was the sharpest read of the 3, since Argentina never turned this into the comfortable, multi-goal win the -1.5 line demanded, needing that late header just to escape by 1.
Argentina
(5-0-0)
Jul 7WvsEgypt3-2
Jul 3WvsCape Verde3-2
Jun 27WvsJordan3-1
Jun 22WvsAustria2-0
Jun 16WvsAlgeria3-0
Egypt
(1-3-1)
Jul 7LvsArgentina2-3
Jul 3DvsAustralia1-1
Jun 26DvsIran1-1
Jun 21WvsNew Zealand3-1
Jun 15DvsBelgium1-1
Recent form.
Argentina moves on to face the winner of Switzerland and Colombia in the quarterfinals, having lived dangerously for the better part of an hour before Messi and company bailed it out. Egypt's run ends in Atlanta, but a team that had the favorite on the ropes with 15 minutes left has nothing to hang its head about on the flight home.
Egypt3-2
Cape Verde3-2
Jordan3-1
Austria2-0
Algeria3-0
Australia1-1
Iran1-1
New Zealand3-1
Belgium1-1