Australia vs Egypt

Fri Jul 3 · 1:00 PM CT

By Pablo SanchezUpdated 5d ago·3 min read

1—1

	1H	2H	FT
AUS	0	0	1
EGY	0	0	1

Egypt drew 1-1 with Australia through extra time at AT&T Stadium on Friday, July 3, then won 4-2 on penalties to advance to the Round of 16. Emam Ashour got Egypt rolling early, Mohamed Hany put it in his own net to level things, and when it came down to spot kicks, Egypt held their nerve and Australia didn't.

Bush’s PicksPicks madeJul 3, 4:21 PM CT

+277AUS

EGY+160

-167Over 1.5✓Under 1.5+167

Best Bet

Egypt to win=

Postgame

Our Egypt win call missed — Australia absorbed and counter-attacked exactly as the bear case warned, pulling level through a Hany OG and holding Egypt scoreless the rest of the way to force a draw through 120 minutes.

Australia

Disciplined low block limited goals against all tournament
Irankunda pace can expose Egypt's high fullbacks on counter
Only 2 goals scored across 3 group games
No answer if Salah and Marmoush are both sharp

Egypt

Salah fit and Marmoush in form is a real threat
Egypt unbeaten in group, better attacking depth than Australia
Multiple key players out or doubtful entering knockout
Australia counter precisely targets Egypt's high defensive line

Egypt are through to the Round of 16 after battling to a 1-1 draw with Australia at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, then winning the penalty shootout 4-2 when 120 minutes couldn't separate them. Emam Ashour opened the scoring from a recycled set piece in the 13th minute, Mohamed Hany turned an Aiden O'Neill delivery into his own net in the 55th to equalize, and the rest was decided from 12 yards — where Egypt were ice cold and Australia were not.

Australia did exactly what Tony Popovic built them to do — sit deep, absorb pressure, and make life difficult on the break. They gave up an early set-piece goal but didn't panic, and the equalizer came through O'Neill's free kick delivery in the 55th minute, which Hany flicked into his own net under pressure. Patrick Beach was sharp in goal throughout, including a crucial late stop on Ramy Rabia's point-blank header that kept Australia alive heading into extra time. Nestory Irankunda's pace on the counter was Egypt's biggest defensive headache all night.

Polymarket — Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.

Kalshi — Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.

Australia finish their 2026 World Cup campaign with a record of W1, D2, L1 — further than most expected, closer to advancing than they had any right to be. The decision to swap Beach for Mat Ryan before penalties backfired, with Ryan unable to stop any of Egypt's 4 converted attempts. Missed penalties from 2 Australian center backs sealed it. They competed well against a stronger side and there is no shame in how they went out — but the shootout is a brutal way to end a tournament.

Egypt came in with the attacking firepower everyone expected — Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush both started — but it was Emam Ashour who delivered the opener, heading home a Karim Hafez delivery in the 13th minute after Egypt recycled a set piece beautifully. They looked the more dangerous side in the first half and should have put the game away before Australia pulled level with the OG gift in the second.

Hany's own goal clearly rattled Egypt, but they regrouped and grinded through 30 minutes of extra time without conceding again. When it went to penalties, Salah stepped up with a cheeky conversion that left Mat Ryan with no chance and set the tone. Egypt put 4 of 5 away and never looked like blowing it. Their tournament record now reads W1, D3, L0 — unbeaten across the competition — and they advance to face a significant test in the Round of 16.

Our moneyline call on Egypt to win missed — the bear case was right on the money, as Australia absorbed, stayed compact, and counter-attacked well enough to force a draw and take the game to extra time. The over 1.5 total cashed though, with exactly 2 goals in regulation validating the bull case that both Salah and Marmoush in the lineup would open things up. Egypt were the market favorite at around 40% to win outright, and that outcome didn't materialize — the draw was always sitting there at 35.5%, and that is exactly how it played out. Egypt advance anyway, which is the result the market expected. Australia just made them earn it the hard way.

Australia

(1-2-1)

Jul 3Dvs

Egypt1-1

Jun 25Dvs