Nestory Irankunda and Connor Metcalfe scored on either side of halftime as Australia shocked Türkiye 2-0 at BC Place to open Group D.
The Socceroos were not supposed to win this one. They did anyway. Irankunda buried a counter in the 28th minute after Paul Okon-Engstler slipped him a perfectly weighted pass, and Metcalfe sealed it in the 75th, driving through midfield and curling a strike into the near post. Türkiye dominated possession, hit the post through Hakan Calhanoglu, and still walked off with nothing.
Türkiye4-2-3-1
Australia5-3-2
Starting 11s.
Tony Popovic's side finished with roughly 28% of the ball. They did not care. Goalkeeper Patrick Beach made the save of the night on Kerem Akturkoglu from point-blank range to protect the two-goal cushion, Harry Souttar bossed the back line, and the counter was lethal twice. Türkiye had the chances, Arda Guler and Calhanoglu among them, but never the breakthrough.
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FT
Spread
Advance
Total
Australia(1-0-0)
2
+0.5
+127
+471
o2.5
+120
Türkiye(0-0-1)
0
-0.5
-130
-130
u2.5
-120
In-Game
Whale Buys
Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.
The markets had this the other way around. Türkiye closed as a clear favorite on Polymarket near 57%, with Australia priced as a live dog at roughly 17%. The draw was the second-most-likely outcome. Instead Australia took all three points, and the group-winner board is now USA on top by a mile with the Socceroos a distant second and Türkiye sliding to third. Paraguay is essentially out of the conversation already.
Australia's path to the round of 16 still sits around 27%, which tells you the market respects this result but is not ready to pencil them in yet. USA is the obvious group winner and a likely opponent on the docket. For Türkiye, the math just got ugly. A loss in the opener with Paraguay still on the schedule means the Calhanoglu-Guler generation has to win out and probably need help. Popovic gets a free swing now. Vincenzo Montella does not.
Egypt1-1
Paraguay0-0
United States0-2
Türkiye2-0