Belgium had 23 shots, 70% of the ball, and Kevin De Bruyne — and walked out of Los Angeles with nothing. The Red Devils drew 0-0 with Iran after Nathan Ngoy's red card in the 66th minute and Alireza Beiranvand's 7-save performance combined to seal it.
Bush’s PicksPicks madeJun 25, 8:34 AM CT
-228BEL=IRN+852
+135BEL -1.5✓IRN +1.5-135
-102Over 2.5✗Under 2.5+102
Best BetBelgium to win=
Postgame
Miss — the bear case bit hard: the patched back line contributed to the red card, Lukaku offered limited output, and Iran sat deep and stole a point exactly as we feared.
Belgium
+Belgium have the best player on the field, the best goalkeeper on the field, and a manager who'll happily turn the screws once Iran tires. A normal performance is enough; a De Bruyne performance is a blowout.
−A patched back four, a striker who's barely played, and a midfield still calibrating means Belgium are a team you can frustrate. Egypt did. Iran will try to do the same and hit on one corner.
IR Iran
+Iran are organized, physical, and have a captain in Taremi who can finish a half-chance. Steal a goal, hold the block, and the bracket is still in play heading to Seattle.
−No Azmoun, a tired squad, and a one-man attack against the deepest team in the group. The body language of the New Zealand second half wasn't great, and that game wasn't this game.
Belgium and Iran played out a 0-0 draw in Los Angeles on June 21, each team's second group match. The Red Devils dominated with 70% possession and 23 shots but couldn't break down a disciplined Iran defensive block. Mehdi Taremi turned and finished past Courtois from a clever free-kick routine in the 25th minute, but VAR ruled him offside. Nathan Ngoy's red card in the 66th minute — for fouling Taremi clean through on goal after a miskick at the back — left Belgium with 10 men for the closing stages, and Alireza Beiranvand made sure none of it mattered. Group G is now a three-way contest heading into the final matchday.
Belgium controlled the match from the first whistle. Kevin De Bruyne orchestrated from midfield, the shape was clean, and Romelu Lukaku — starting despite hamstring concerns — tested the keeper with a header in the 36th minute. The Red Devils had the better of the game for long stretches, but the finishing touch never came. Belgium generated 23 shots against a side that sat back and defended in numbers, and every one of them was accounted for.
Show fees
FT
Spread
Advance
Total
Belgium(0-2-0)
0
-1.5
+135
-228
o2.5
-102
IR Iran(0-2-0)
0
+1.5
-135
+852
u2.5
+102
In-Game
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Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.
The turning point was ugly. Ngoy's miskick at the back gifted the ball to Taremi, and Ngoy brought him down rather than let him run in on goal — textbook red card, no dispute. Belgium spent the final 25 minutes a man down and couldn't convert. Ngoy's suspension wipes out Belgium's first-choice center-back option for the New Zealand match, which is a real problem: the back line was already the squad's weakest unit, and it just got weaker.
Iran came in with a plan and stuck to it. The defensive shape was compact, transitions were disciplined, and the team rarely gave Belgium space to work in behind. Mehdi Taremi was their best player — physical, hard to contain, and clever enough to draw the foul that ended with Ngoy's dismissal. His 25th-minute finish was technically excellent, a sharp turn and low finish past Courtois from a clever free-kick routine, but VAR took it back for offside.
Alireza Beiranvand was the best player on the field. The goalkeeper made 7 saves — sharp, aggressive off his line, and dependable under Belgium's sustained pressure. His point-blank stop on Belgium's clearest chance in the 86th minute was the moment that confirmed the result. Iran are now level on points with Belgium in Group G, both at 2, and still in contention for the group win. They face Egypt in the final round and need at least a draw to hold their place in the knockout stage.
The moneyline miss stings because the bear case was right about everything. We flagged a patched back four, an underdone Lukaku, and Iran capable of stealing a point the same way low-block teams tend to against Belgium — and that's exactly what happened, down to the defensive error that triggered the red card. The spread call on Iran +1.5 covered easily: Belgium never won, so the handicap was never in danger. The total was a clean miss — we took the Over 2.5 and got a 0-0. The under cashed as hard as it can cash.
The market had Belgium as clear favorites before kickoff and got a goalless draw plus a red card instead. Belgium are still around 94% to advance from the group, but they've now drawn twice without looking convincing in attack, and the New Zealand match won't be the easy result it should be without Ngoy at center-back. Group G stays messy all the way to the final round.
Belgium
(3-2-0)
Jul 6WvsUnited States4-1
Jul 1WvsSenegal3-2
Jun 26WvsNew Zealand5-1
Jun 21DvsIran0-0
Jun 15DvsEgypt1-1
Iran
(0-3-0)
Jun 26DvsEgypt1-1
Jun 21DvsBelgium0-0
Jun 15DvsNew Zealand2-2
Recent form.
Belgium
(1)
SuspendedNathan Ngoy — Red card in the 66th minute for denying clear scoring opportunity
United States4-1
Senegal3-2
New Zealand5-1
Iran0-0
Egypt1-1