Belgium vs Senegal

Wed Jul 1 · 3:00 PM CT

By Pablo SanchezUpdated 6d ago·2 min read

3—2

	1H	2H	FT
BEL	0	0	3
SEN	0	0	2

Belgium went 2 goals down in the first 51 minutes and still came back to win 3-2, with Youri Tielemans scoring twice — including a controversial extra-time penalty — to knock Senegal out of the 2026 World Cup in Seattle.

Bush’s PicksPicks madeJul 1, 6:15 PM CT

-102BEL

✓

SEN+344

-125Over 2.5✗Under 2.5+125

Best Bet

Belgium to win✓

Postgame

Bull case landed — Belgium were the right side and came through, even after the bear narrative (De Ketelaere up top, Lukaku on the bench) nearly cost them.

Belgium

De Bruyne and Doku have the tools to unlock any defense
Group winners, unbeaten all tournament with an organized backline
Two group draws show Belgium can be stalled by a low block
Lukaku off the bench weakens the early goal threat

Senegal

Sarr with 4 goals is the standout individual in this match
Iraq rout showed the attack can explode when space appears
Mendy out removes Senegal's best defensive organizer in goal
Dropped 2 group games; Belgium is a clear level up

Habib Diarra put Senegal ahead in the 25th minute and Ismaïla Sarr extended it to 2-0 just after halftime, and for a long stretch this looked like it was going exactly where Senegal needed it to go. Then Romelu Lukaku pulled one back in the 86th minute, Youri Tielemans headed home the equalizer in the 89th to send it to extra time, and in the 125th minute a VAR-reviewed penalty settled it — Tielemans converted to give Belgium a 3-2 win and book their spot in the Round of 16.

Belgium were second-best for an hour and they knew it. Charles De Ketelaere started up front instead of Lukaku, and Kevin De Bruyne and Jeremy Doku both came off at halftime — those substitutions told you exactly how the first 45 went. The Red Devils had 18 shots across the match but Senegal's defensive shape made Belgium look pedestrian right up until the game cracked open.

Polymarket — Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.

Kalshi — Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.

Lukaku was the difference the moment he arrived. His 86th-minute goal changed the entire atmosphere, Tielemans' header 3 minutes later broke Senegal's resistance, and the captain then converted the VAR-awarded spot-kick — a foul by Lamine Camara on Tielemans in the penalty area — to finish the comeback. Rudi Garcia's side survived a difficult evening and will face the winner of USA vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina in the Round of 16.

Senegal were the better team for most of this match and they deserved better than the result they got. Diarra's 25th-minute opener was composed and well-worked, Sarr added a second early in the second half, and the Lions looked organized without Edouard Mendy — the keeper who had been ruled out through injury before kickoff — with Mory Diaw holding firm behind a disciplined back line.

Then Belgium found 3 goals in 40 minutes and that was that. The VAR penalty call in the 125th minute was a gut punch — Senegal players argued the call for several minutes and the review stretched to around 7 minutes — but the referee stood by the decision. Sarr delivered again and Diarra showed real quality, but 3 losses in 4 matches across this tournament is the bottom line for Senegal.

Moneyline hit: Belgium at 50.5% on Polymarket was the right call and they delivered, even if it took a 2-goal deficit and 125 minutes to get there. The total was a different story. We backed the under at 2.5, 5 goals scored, pick missed. The bear case wrote itself in the preview — Sarr was dangerous, the attack could detonate fast — and it happened exactly that way. The market was leaning over all along and the market was right. Two picks, one hit, one miss.

Belgium advance to the Round of 16 having done it the hard way. The Red Devils looked beatable for large parts of this and will need a sharper performance against whoever comes out of the USA-Bosnia tie. Senegal are done — they pushed a legitimate contender to extra time and were level with 35 minutes to play, which is more than their group record suggested they had in them.

Belgium

(3-2-0)

Jul 6Wvs