Brazil vs Japan: Polymarket Odds & Prediction | World Cup 2026

Brazil trailed at halftime and needed a Gabriel Martinelli goal in the 6th minute of stoppage time to escape Japan 2-1, turning a first-half deficit into a Round of 32 win in Houston on Monday.

Japan led through Kaishu Sano's 29th-minute strike and held that lead all the way to halftime. Brazil came out different in the second half — Casemiro headed in an equalizer in the 56th minute — but it still took until the 96th minute and a curling Martinelli finish off a Bruno Guimarães assist to make it 2-1. Brazil dominated possession throughout but made hard work of a result they probably should have wrapped up earlier.

Brazil were sloppy early. Casemiro's defensive error directly contributed to Sano's opener, and the back line looked uncertain before Japan's halftime lead settled in. But the second half was a reset. Brazil controlled 69% of possession, worked chances consistently, and Casemiro made amends for his first-half lapse with a powerful back-post header in the 56th minute. When Martinelli latched onto Guimarães' precise pass deep in added time and curled home the 2-1 winner, it was the finish Brazil's second-half dominance deserved — just later than expected.

	1H	2H	FT
BRA	0	0	2
JPN	0	0	1

Vinicius Jr. was a persistent problem for Japan's backline all match. He nutmegged a defender in a particularly sharp sequence and forced goalkeeper Suzuki into at least 1 excellent save, but the direct return wasn't there. Without Raphinha, Brazil's right side was noticeably thin, and Japan's defensive structure made the first 45 genuinely uncomfortable. Brazil's expected goals count was heavily in their favor, and in the end they advanced. They face the winner of Ivory Coast vs Norway on July 5 in East Rutherford, with Casemiro's fitness the main question after he was subbed off injured in stoppage time.

Japan came in unbeaten from the group stage and played exactly the disciplined, organized soccer that gave Brazil problems. Sano's 29th-minute goal — scored just minutes after picking up a yellow card himself — was a direct reward for Japan's willingness to press and punish Casemiro's mistake. Their 3-4-2-1 structure stayed compact and organized for most of the game, and for a long stretch Japan were within touching distance of one of the tournament's bigger results.

The problem was the absences. Without Kubo, Mitoma, and Endo, Japan had no one capable of creating real danger after they scored. They absorbed pressure well but never threatened a second goal when they needed 1, and when Martinelli struck in the 96th minute, there was nothing left to answer with. Moriyasu's team proved their group-stage run was legitimate — this was a competitive match against the heavy favorites — but the creative void up front was just too large to overcome. Japan exit the tournament at 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss.

Our moneyline call on Brazil hit. The Japan-without-key-attackers bull case was exactly right — Kubo, Mitoma, and Endo were gone, and Japan's attack produced Sano's early goal and nothing else all match. The total was a miss. We backed the under leaning on Brazil's group-stage defensive record and Japan's tendency to play tight margins, but Sano scored first and Martinelli's stoppage-time winner pushed the total to 3 goals over our 2.5 line. Credit to the bear case we flagged pre-match: Martinelli did what Vinicius couldn't quite finish, and Japan showed they could attack in a tight game — the under just didn't survive stoppage time.

Markets had Brazil at roughly 56% to win straight up, and the result matched that read — just barely. Brazil advance with a 3-1-0 tournament record and a near-certain path deeper into the knockout stage, while Japan exit at 1-2-1. Brazil had already locked up Group C well before this match; the focus now shifts to whether they can stay healthy enough to threaten a run. Casemiro's stoppage-time injury is the one thing worth watching before July 5.

Brazil

(3-1-1)

Jul 5Lvs