Brazil 1, Morocco 1. Ismael Saibari chipped Alisson early, Vinicius Junior bailed the favorites out, and the Atlas Lions walked out of New Jersey with the better of the 90 minutes.
Brazil opened the World Cup with a draw they did not deserve to escape. Morocco struck first through Ismael Saibari in the 21st minute, a Brahim Diaz through ball and a cool dink over Alisson, and they were the better team for long stretches at MetLife. Vinicius Junior dragged Brazil level in the 32nd, weaving past his marker and finishing from close range, and Carlo Ancelotti's side spent the rest of the night hanging on rather than chasing a winner.
Morocco4-3-3
Brazil4-2-3-1
Starting 11s.
The warning sign came earlier. Igor Thiago headed wide from 5 yards in the 14th minute off a Vinicius cross, and after that it was almost all Morocco. The Atlas Lions out-shot Brazil 12-6 in the first half and controlled the tempo through Azzedine Ounahi and Bilal El Khannouss. Yassine Bounou kept the points level late with a sharp double save. Ancelotti yanked the booked Casemiro and Roger Ibañez at the break and brought on Fabinho and Danilo to stop the bleeding.
Show fees
FT
Spread
Advance
Total
Brazil(0-1-0)
1
-
-
-141
-
-
Morocco(0-1-0)
1
-
-
+506
-
-
In-Game
Whale Buys
Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.
The market had this as a clear Brazil night. Polymarket closed Brazil around 59% to win with the draw a distant second and Morocco a live dog. A draw was always the cleanest path to an upset, and that is exactly what Walid Regragui's group went and grabbed. Nothing here screams that the price was wrong, but the performance underneath it sure does — Brazil were second best for most of the match and got out with a point.
Group C is now genuinely interesting. Brazil are still favored to win the group and the model puts their round-of-16 odds around 71%, but Morocco's path opened up in a hurry — they are now better than a coin flip to advance. Scotland and Haiti are the two remaining hurdles for both sides, and a Morocco team that just went toe-to-toe with the tournament favorites will fancy itself to take 6 points from there.
Next up: both teams roll into matchday 2 against the bottom half of the group. Brazil need a cleaner shape in midfield — Bruno Guimaraes and Casemiro were overrun — and a center forward who can punish the chances Vinicius and Raphinha create. Morocco need to keep doing what they did. If Bounou keeps saving and Diaz keeps threading passes like the Saibari assist, this is a team nobody in the bracket wants to draw.
Norway1-2
Japan2-1
Scotland3-0
Haiti3-0
Morocco1-1
Canada3-0
Netherlands1-1