Barstool Bush

Canada vs Morocco

Sat Jul 4 · 12:00 PM CT
By Pablo SanchezUpdated 4d ago·2 min read
Canada
Morocco
0—3
FT
1H2HFT
CAN
000
MAR
003

Morocco ended Canada's World Cup 3-0 in the Round of 16, breaking a tight game open with a second-half Azzedine Ounahi brace and a Soufiane Rahimi finish deep into stoppage time.

Bush’s PicksPicks madeJul 4, 2:36 PM CT
+264CAN✓MAR-264
+108CAN +0.5✗MAR -0.5-111
+141Over 2.5✗Under 2.5-141
Best BetMorocco to win✓
Postgame

Our Morocco pick cashes clean and in regulation - no extra time or penalties needed - with the Bounou-anchored spine we flagged holding up for a shutout while the Davies-related worry never mattered since he stayed on the bench.

Pregame

Morocco's spine - Bono, Hakimi, Diop, Riad - has weathered 4 matches without cracking, and that kind of experience tends to show up in one-off knockout football. Canada is genuinely better with Davies in the side, but this is his first start of the entire tournament, and asking him to carry a team missing its ball-winning midfielder against a settled opponent is a lot to ask in one match. The shootout marathon against the Netherlands is Morocco's one real vulnerability, but a group of players who have already been through the worst of it usually finds a way again.

Canada
  • Eustaquio's stoppage-time winner shows nerve in big moments
  • Davies adds a gear nobody else on the roster has
  • Missing Kone's ball-winning bite through midfield
  • Davies up against a full match for the first time
Morocco
  • Won a shootout without cracking under pressure
  • Ouahbi trusts only fully fit players in the lineup
  • Legs may be heavy after 120 minutes 5 days ago
  • Riad's fitness still a story right up to kickoff

Canada started brightly and gave the home crowd in Houston something to believe in for the first half hour. Then Achraf Hakimi found space down the right, cut the ball back, and Ounahi drilled it low through traffic to open the scoring in the 50th minute. Ounahi struck again in the 82nd, this time teed up by Brahim Diaz, and Diaz turned provider a second time in stoppage, slipping in Rahimi for a clinical finish that put the game away for good.

BounouHakimiDiopHalhalMazraouiBouaddiAynaouiDiazOunahiKhannoussSaibariCrepeauJohnstonFougerollesBombitoLaryeaBuchananSigurEustaquioAhmedDavidOluwaseyi
Morocco4-2-3-1
Canada4-4-2
Starting 11s.

Both benches told a story. Morocco's spine - Bounou, Hakimi, Issa Diop - started intact just days after a shootout marathon, with Redouane Halhal filling in at center back. Canada made the bigger swing, holding Alphonso Davies on the bench and starting Niko Sigur for the first time all tournament in a midfield already without its ball-winner. That gamble on freshness never got tested, because Morocco simply had the better individual moments when it mattered.

Show fees
FT
Spread
Advance
Total
Canada(2-1-2)
0
Polymarket
+0.5
+108
Polymarket
+264
Polymarket
o2.5
+141
Morocco(3-2-0)
3
Polymarket
-0.5
-111
Polymarket
-264
Polymarket
u2.5
-141
In-Game
Whale Buys
Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.

The market had this pegged as a clear Morocco game, and the result did not just match that read - it blew past it. Books had Morocco needing something like 3-in-4 odds to advance, and they did not need extra time or penalties to get there; this one was decided in regulation, straight up, by a Moroccan attack that scored twice in the final 20 minutes plus stoppage.

That's the box score for a game Morocco controlled without ever really being threatened. Diaz's two assists tie the whole second half together, and Ounahi's brace made him the reason this got out of hand instead of staying a nervy 1-0.

Canada
(2-1-2)
Jul 4LvsMorocco0-3
Jun 28WvsSouth Africa1-0
Jun 24LvsSwitzerland1-2
Jun 18WvsQatar6-0
Jun 12DvsBosnia-Herzegovina1-1
Morocco
(3-2-0)
Jul 4WvsCanada3-0
Jun 29DvsNetherlands1-1
Jun 24WvsHaiti4-2
Jun 19WvsScotland1-0
Jun 13DvsBrazil1-1
Recent form.

Grading our card: the moneyline call on Morocco cashes clean - no extra time, no penalties needed, just the spine we flagged (Bono in goal, the same back four) holding up again for a shutout while Davies never even got the start we worried about. The spread pick on Canada +0.5 whiffs hard; we bet on tired legs and a settled defense keeping this level, and instead Morocco looked fresh enough to score twice in the final half hour. The under 2.5 total loses too - three goals in regulation blew past that number, with Ounahi and Diaz doing exactly the bunched-scoring damage we didn't expect from either side. Canada's bull case (Eustaquio's nerve, Davies as an X-factor) never got a chance to show up since Davies stayed on the bench, while Morocco's bear case about heavy legs after 120 minutes and a shootout turned out to be nothing - they were the sharper team from the 50th minute on. Morocco moves on to the quarterfinals, the team's second appearance at that stage.

Sources

World CupGroup BCanadaMoroccoPolymarketKalshiDraftKings