Ivory Coast 1, Ecuador 0. Amad Diallo punched a hole in a stalemate at the death and flipped Group E sideways.
Ecuador were the better side for most of the night at Lincoln Financial Field and walked off with nothing. Ivory Coast hung around, hit the woodwork themselves, and then Amad Diallo found a clean shot in the 90th minute to win it 1-0. Ecuador rattled the crossbar through John Yeboah in the 23rd and never quite got the moment back, despite carrying the better chances and the calmer build-up.
Ecuador4-2-3-1
Ivory Coast4-2-3-1
Starting 11s.
It was a chippy, tight game. Franck Kessie picked up a yellow on 39 minutes for a late one on Piero Hincapie, and Guela Doue followed two minutes later for a stamp on Enner Valencia. Ivory Coast clipped the post in the 51st and then settled into the kind of stubborn shape that turns 0-0 into 1-0. Diallo, who'd been a threat off the right all night, delivered the only thing that mattered.
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FT
Spread
Advance
Total
Côte d'Ivoire(1-0-0)
1
+0.5
-156
+251
o1.5
-160
Ecuador(0-0-1)
0
-0.5
+160
+160
u1.5
+163
In-Game
Whale Buys
Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.
The market did not see this coming. Ecuador were the favorite at every book that matters and Ivory Coast were the live dog of the three-way at roughly a 29% chance to win outright. The draw was priced like a real outcome too. Instead Ivory Coast take the full 3 points and Ecuador eat the loss they were the least likely team on the pitch to absorb.
Group E is still Germany's to lose by a country mile, but the floor underneath Ecuador just dropped. Their chance of reaching the round of 16 is now roughly a coin flip at 45.5%, and they still have Germany on the schedule. Ivory Coast are level on points with the Germans and their group-winner number is a real, if small, live ticket rather than a rounding error.
Both sides have Germany and Curacao left. Ecuador almost certainly need to beat Curacao and steal something from Germany to avoid sweating the final table. Ivory Coast can bank Curacao as a likely 3 points and then everything rides on the Germany game. The Elephants didn't play the prettier 90 minutes here. They played the only one that counted.
Norway1-2
Curaçao2-0
Germany1-2
Ecuador1-0
Mexico0-2