The story of this match for Côte d'Ivoire is Amad Diallo. Emerse Faé left him on the bench to start — a call that looked questionable as the half dragged on — and Diallo came on at 60' and immediately changed the match. His 74th-minute equalizer, set up by Pépé, was sharp and direct and exactly the counter-punch their pre-match case promised. He nearly forced another save from Nyland in stoppage time too. But CIV couldn't hold the level score for 16 minutes, and when Haaland punished them in the 86th, there was no answer. The fight was real; the tournament is over.
Norway were effective without being particularly convincing. Ødegaard's assist for Nusa's 39th-minute opener showed what this attack looks like at its best — quick interplay, precise delivery, and a finish that Yahia Fofana had no chance with. Nusa curled it into the top corner from a tight angle on the left. He was booked right before halftime and came off at 71', but he had already done his job. Through the first hour Norway controlled the tempo without truly suffocating CIV, and the equalizer came as a consequence.
Haaland was quiet by his standards for most of this match — then Berg found him in the area in the 86th minute and he pushed it home, his 5th goal of the tournament. Norway's underlying numbers here do not read like a team that commanded this game: 2 shots on target, an xG of 0.66. They massively outperformed expectations on the scoreboard. They will not care. Solbakken's side is 3-1 overall and through to the Round of 16, which is the only number that matters right now.
We called Norway on the moneyline and the over 2.5 total — both hit. Norway were priced at roughly 45% to win and delivered, and the 3-goal total cleared the line with exactly 1 goal to spare. The bull cases for both picks played out cleanly: Nusa and Ødegaard unlocked CIV's defense for the opener, and Haaland came through when Norway needed him most. The total bull case — both teams carrying real attacking weapons — held up across 86 minutes of a match that had genuine danger at both ends.
Worth noting: the bear cases were also real. The draw was extremely live for over 70 minutes. Diallo off the bench — our own bear flag — equalized and nearly did more in stoppage time. Norway needed a late Haaland intervention to avoid extra time. The market didn't fully price how competitive Ivory Coast would be on the day, and neither did we. Two cashed tickets is a clean night. The manner of earning them was messier than the scoreline suggests.
Norway1-2
Curaçao2-0
Germany1-2
Ecuador1-0
Brazil2-1Ivory Coast2-1
France1-4
Senegal3-2
Iraq4-1