The second half got messier after Ghana equalized in the 73rd, but Croatia didn't panic. Modrić delivered an outswinging corner in the 83rd minute, Vlašić got to it first, and the header came back off the inside of the left post and in. Game over. Croatia close the group at 2-1-0 with 6 points, firmly second behind England. When it mattered most, the midfield engine delivered exactly what it was supposed to.
Ghana held their defensive shape well through the first half, keeping Croatia's open-play threat limited to the Sučić goal and a Vlašić post shot. Semenyo had a genuine look at goal in the 40th minute but couldn't direct it on target. For long stretches Asare looked confident and the back four stayed disciplined against Croatia's wide overloads. The issue, as it had been all group stage without Kudus, was generating consistent attacking thrust in the other direction.
Luckassen's 73rd-minute equalizer — set up by substitute Ernest Nuamah from a free kick — was Ghana's best moment and proved they could hurt a high defensive line from set pieces. But Croatia answered within 10 minutes, and Ghana's late pressure came to nothing. They finish on 4 points (1W-1D-1L) and advance to the Round of 32 as a third-place qualifier. The defensive record was real — Asare and the back four were organized throughout — but without a reliable creative outlet up front, they were always one set piece away from being chasing the game rather than controlling it.
Our moneyline on Croatia hit. The bull case played out close to script — must-win pressure brought maximum commitment, the Modrić-Kovačić axis was the best midfield unit on the pitch, and Croatia won the game they needed. The total missed: we backed the under at 2.5 and 3 goals hit the board. The bear case was right that Croatia needing goals would force them to push numbers forward, and Ghana's set-piece equalizer is exactly the kind of moment that bloats a total. Markets had Croatia at roughly 55% favorites going in — that held up — but the under was priced around 62% and didn't survive.
Group L is settled: England top, Croatia second, Ghana through as third-place qualifier, Panama out. Croatia now enter the Round of 32 with Vlašić and Sučić both productive and Modrić still delivering at the highest level. Ghana's advancement on 4 points is legitimate — they conceded just 1 goal across 2 games before this one, and showed set-piece threat when it mattered. Whether the markets' 21% for the Round of 16 looks fair or cheap depends entirely on the bracket draw.
Portugal1-2
Ghana2-1
Panama1-0
England2-4
Colombia0-1Croatia1-2England0-0Panama1-0