The real shift came at the restart. Bellingham scored 47 seconds — sorry, in the 47th minute — to retake the lead, and Rashford iced it with 5 minutes left. Tuchel got dominant possession, a 22-shot performance per the match data, and the only thing to grumble about is the soft middle that let Croatia score twice.
For 45 minutes Croatia were genuinely in this. Martin Baturina came off the bench in the 36th and immediately hit a long-range strike to level it, and Petar Musa added a second in first-half stoppage time to make it 2-2 at the break. Against a side this heavily favored, that's already overachieving.
The second half was a different story. Once Bellingham restored England's lead inside two minutes of the restart, Croatia couldn't find another gear. Livakovic kept the scoreline from getting uglier, but the midfield that has carried Croatia through tournaments past looked a step slow.
The market had England at 58.5% on Polymarket pre-kick and a 4-2 win does nothing to argue with that — favorite wins, over 2.5 cashes, everything tidy. The wild part is the group picture barely moved because it was already lopsided: England are now 88% to win Group L, Croatia just 6%.
Croatia aren't dead — they sit at 39% to reach the round of 16 and get Ghana and Panama next, both winnable. England get the same two opponents and, on this evidence, should be booking knockout flights. The defense is the only nag.
Mexico3-2
DR Congo2-1
Panama2-0
Ghana0-0
Croatia4-2
Portugal1-2Ghana2-1Panama1-0England2-4