England vs DR Congo

Wed Jul 1 · 11:00 AM CT

By Pablo SanchezUpdated 7d ago·3 min read

2—1

	1H	2H	FT
ENG	0	0	2
COD	0	0	1

Harry Kane scored twice in 11 minutes to drag England back from the brink, surviving an early shock from DR Congo to seal a 2-1 Round of 32 win in Atlanta.

Bush’s PicksPicks madeJul 1, 1:15 PM CT

-308ENG

✓

COD+1718

ENG -1.5

✗

COD +1.5

Over 2.5✗Under 2.5

Best Bet

England to win✓

Postgame

The bull case held — Kane was in red-hot form and England's quality gap over Congo was real, even if it took 75 minutes to show up.

England

Kane in red-hot form with 3 goals already
Full midfield engine back with Rice returning
Right-back spot meaningfully weaker without James
Went quiet in long stretches against Ghana

DR Congo

Wissa proven tournament scorer, 3 goals in 3 games
Compact 3-5-2 held Portugal to a draw
Midfield overmatched by Rice and Bellingham
Came from behind vs Uzbekistan, defense not airtight

England came from behind on Wednesday to beat DR Congo 2-1 in the Round of 32 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Brian Cipenga's 7th-minute stunner set the tone for a long, uncomfortable afternoon — substitute Anthony Gordon finally broke the deadlock with 2 assists in 11 second-half minutes to set up Harry Kane's brace and send England into the Round of 16.

Thomas Tuchel made 3 lineup changes, most notably handing Djed Spence the right-back spot with Reece James out. England looked exactly like a side missing their best right-back. For the first 70 minutes they were slow, disjointed, and incapable of breaking down a compact Congo block — Jude Bellingham picked up a yellow card at 20', a VAR review wiped out Kane's penalty appeal at 43', and Lionel Mpasi made a stunning close-range save to deny Kane a volley just before the break. Declan Rice was back in the engine room and the midfield edge was real on paper, but England couldn't translate it into goals.

Polymarket — Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.

Kalshi — Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.

The turning point was Tuchel pulling Madueke and Rashford at 70' and throwing on Bukayo Saka and Anthony Gordon. Gordon changed the game immediately. His chip to the back post found Kane for the header at 75', then he slid a pass through that Kane turned and fired into the roof of the net at 86'. England are through and face Mexico in the Round of 16 — but they owe Gordon a significant debt for pulling them through.

DR Congo were exactly the problem the pre-match numbers understated. Captain Chancel Mbemba launched a quarterback-style diagonal switch in the 7th minute that found Cipenga unmarked at the back post, and the finish was composed. Yoane Wissa then hit the post from close range at 36' — a second goal there and England's night gets genuinely dangerous. Goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi was the game's standout performer, making a string of saves throughout that kept Congo in front far longer than any 5.5% underdog had any right to be.

The 3-5-2 block held England at bay for 75 minutes, which is a genuine achievement against this level of opposition. When Kane's quality finally told in the final 15, there was little Congo could do — 2 clinical finishes in 11 minutes from a striker this sharp are hard to stop for any defense. Their tournament ends 1-1-2, but DR Congo's first-ever World Cup knockout stage appearance showed they belong at this level.

We went 1 for 3 on the pre-match calls. The moneyline landed — England won, Kane delivered, and the quality gap was real. The spread missed: our -1.5 needed England to win by 2, and they only won by 1. Our bear note about Congo's compact shape forcing a nervy win was exactly right, just not enough margin to cover. The total busted hardest. We backed under 2.5 and argued England would manage the game once ahead — instead Cipenga scored early, Kane scored twice, and 3 goals hit the board. The bull case on England's attack being capable of an explosion was the one to listen to.

The market priced England at 75.5% to win and they delivered, barely and only late. Congo outperformed their expected ceiling for most of 90 minutes — Mpasi was the difference in the first half. England move on at 3-1-0 overall for the tournament with a date against Mexico in the Round of 16. DR Congo go home having scared one of Europe's heavyweights in the final 15 minutes of their World Cup run.

England

(4-1-0)

Jul 5Wvs