Barstool Bush

France vs Iraq

Mon Jun 22 · 4:00 PM CT
By Pablo SanchezUpdated 13d ago·2 min read
France
Iraq
3—0
FT
1H2HFT
FRA
003
IRQ
000

France made it 2 wins from 2 in Group I, routing Iraq 3-0 in Philadelphia on a night that included a 2-hour thunderstorm delay and a Kylian Mbappé brace. Les Bleus are through to the Round of 32.

Bush’s PicksPicks madeJun 25, 9:35 AM CT
-953FRA✓IRQ+4344
-130FRA -2.5✓IRQ +2.5+130
-120Over 3.5✓Under 3.5+120
Best BetFrance to win✓
Postgame

The bull case landed — France's deeper squad and in-form striker controlled the match from the first whistle, and the rotation risk from the bear case never came into play.

France
  • Deepest squad in the group, the only forward in Group I who can win a game by himself, and a manager who reads tournament rhythms as well as anyone. A win here clinches the knockouts and lets Deschamps treat Norway as a winner-takes-the-group final.
  • Squad management can backfire. If rotation goes too aggressive and Mbappé picks up another niggle, the Norway match — and a difficult Round of 32 draw — gets a lot harder.
Iraq
  • Arnold has them organized, and Aymen Hussein has shown he can score at this level. A low block and a set-piece chance is a realistic blueprint for keeping the result respectable.
  • They were torn open by Haaland and have no comparable counter to Mbappé. The gap in individual quality across the pitch is enormous, and a second heavy loss eliminates them outright.

France handled the chaos of a weather-interrupted evening in Philadelphia like a side that's been here before: Mbappé put them ahead in the 14th minute, a thunderstorm shut play down for just over 2 hours, and then France came back out and finished the job with Mbappé's second in the 54th minute and Dembélé's goal in the 66th to win 3-0. Iraq never seriously threatened, and the scoreline is an accurate reflection of the gap.

Mbappé's 14th-minute opener set the tone — a fizzing left-footed strike from outside the box after Olise found him on the right, in the player's 100th appearance for France. After the delay, France picked up exactly where they left off: a botched short goal-kick from Iraq's backline handed Dembélé possession in a dangerous area, and his square ball across the box led to Mbappé's 54th-minute second. The brace took Mbappé to 16 World Cup goals, drawing level with Miroslav Klose's all-time record.

Show fees
FT
Spread
Advance
Total
France(2-0-0)
3
Polymarket
-2.5
-130
Polymarket
-953
Polymarket
o3.5
-120
Iraq(0-0-2)
0
Polymarket
+2.5
+130
Polymarket
+4344
Polymarket
u3.5
+120
In-Game
Whale Buys
Advance includes extra time & pens; spread + total settle on 90 minutes.

Dembélé completed the scoring in the 66th minute — Olise's second assist of the night — and France had everything they came for: 3 goals, a clean sheet, and a result that barely tested the squad. Deschamps didn't need to go nuclear, and he didn't. Olise was quietly excellent throughout, and France arrives at the Norway match for group honors with all the leverage.

Iraq made one smart adjustment going into this one — Ahmed Basil got the start in goal after the 4-goal concession against Norway — and they held their shape well enough through the first half. The second half undid them quickly. A botched short goal-kick from their own backline handed Dembélé possession in a dangerous area, and Mbappé's 54th-minute finish off the square ball effectively ended the contest before the hour mark.

Amir Alammari collected a yellow card in the 67th minute, and Iraq's attacking threat was close to nonexistent against a French defensive unit that barely had to work. Aymen Hussein was isolated up front, the low block never materialized properly, and back-to-back heavy defeats have the market writing them off. The path to the Round of 32 is effectively closed.

All 3 pre-match picks cashed. The moneyline on France was the easy call — Polymarket had them near 89.5% before kickoff and the result never required a second thought. The spread (-2.5) and the total (under 3.5) were the more interesting questions: France won by exactly 3, which covers the -2.5 line, and 3 total goals falls comfortably under 3.5. The bull case on the total called 3-0 as the modal scoreline — that is exactly what Deschamps delivered. The bear risk on the spread (France going up 2-0, clearing the bench, and conceding a late consolation) never materialized.

France are confirmed at 100% to reach the Round of 32; Iraq sit at 1.5% and are effectively heading home. The final group matchday is France vs. Norway for first place, and after this controlled performance, Deschamps has every reason to treat it as a genuine contest rather than a dead rubber.

France
(5-0-0)
Jul 4WvsParaguay1-0
Jun 30WvsSweden3-0
Jun 26WvsNorway4-1
Jun 22WvsIraq3-0
Jun 16WvsSenegal3-1
Iraq
(0-0-3)
Jun 26LvsSenegal0-5
Jun 22LvsFrance0-3
Jun 16LvsNorway1-4
Recent form.

Sources

World CupGroup IFranceIraqPolymarketKalshiDraftKings