France vs Senegal: Polymarket Odds & Prediction | World Cup 2026

France beat Senegal 3-1 in Group I, with Kylian Mbappe scoring twice and passing Olivier Giroud as Les Bleus' all-time leading scorer.

France 3, Senegal 1. A flat opening 45 from the favorites turned into a Mbappe show after the break — he opened it in the 66th, Bradley Barcola made it two in the 82nd, and after Ibrahim Mbaye pulled one back deep into stoppage time, Mbappe hit a long-range finish a minute later to seal it and move past Olivier Giroud as France's all-time leading scorer with 58.

The first half was bad. France's front four of Mbappe, Olise, Dembele and Doue barely connected, Senegal hit the post through Nicolas Jackson, and Ismaila Sarr should have done better just before the break. Mbappe also had a penalty shout waved away after a VAR check — the referee decided he had initiated the contact with Sadio Mane.

	1H	2H	FT
FRA	0	0	3
SEN	0	0	1

Then the captain delivered. Michael Olise threaded the pass for the 66th-minute opener, Adrien Rabiot teed up Barcola for the second in the 82nd, and Mbappe punctuated it with a stoppage-time strike from distance for the record. 3 points, a clean start in Group I, and there's plenty to clean up before Norway — but the scoreline is exactly what was on the tin.

For 45 minutes Senegal looked like the side that could nick this. Jackson rattled the post, Sarr blazed a great chance over from close range, and Sadio Mane drew a VAR check that went their way. The press worked, the spaces were there, and France looked rattled.

It evaporated after the interval. France's quality found its level, the chances dried up, and the only reward came in the 90+5' minute when substitute Ibrahim Mbaye finished off a late move — a goal that lasted about 60 seconds before Mbappe answered. A tough draw on paper got tougher on the scoreboard, and the road to the round of 16 now runs through Norway and Iraq.

Markets had France around 67% to win and Senegal a 14% live dog, and that's pretty much exactly how this played out — chalk wins, with a first-half scare that never translated to the scoreboard. The group-winner board still has France runaway clear and Norway as the only real threat, while Senegal's path to the knockouts just got narrower with a result everyone saw coming.

Next up: France get Norway in what's effectively the group decider, and Senegal need a result against Iraq to stay alive. If you bought Mbappe stock before kickoff, today was the payoff — record in hand, 2 goals, and a brace in a win that keeps Les Bleus' campaign on the rails.

France

(5-0-0)

Jul 4Wvs